Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Retail Sales (May) The surprisingly resilient 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales in May, which was above the consensus forecast of no change, means that monthly GDP probably only contracted by 0.3% m/m despite the disruption... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets keep their cool despite slowdown signs Almost a month on from the historic vote to leave the EU, some of the first indicators of the state of the economy appear to point to a marked slowdown in growth. But the prospect of policy support to... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys for July suggest that activity is contracting sharply in the UK following the Brexit vote. But there is no sign that other economies have been hit. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (July) We expect the rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% y/y over June as a whole, to be the start of an upward trend that will ultimately force the central bank... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Few signs of collapse in prices but risks loom The data so far on housing market activity and prices are broadly to our expectations, pointing to a fall in transactions but no collapse in prices. Yet with data from this morning reporting a sharp... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Could the market talk itself into a correction? Our central view is that the outlook for commercial property is healthier than the recent gloomy headlines would suggest. Nevertheless, there is a latent risk that negative sentiment itself could... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan's struggles to continue Second quarter GDP figures for Taiwan, due to be published over the coming week, are likelyto show the economy remains very weak. With subdued global demand continuing to drag onexports, the property... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack After the coup... The failed military coup in Turkey and subsequent government backlash have dominated investors’ concerns over the past week and triggered a sell-off in local financial markets. Policymakers have... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (June) Global investors pulled money out of China’s financial markets at a slightly faster pace last month, perhaps due to renewed concerns about the outlook for the renminbi. But the largest rise in foreign... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Life after Brexit For the world as a whole, the economic impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union should be negligible. Nonetheless, growth looks set to remain lacklustre in advanced economies. And with... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Flash PMIs (Jul.) The first economy-wide gauge of post-referendum activity suggests that the UK economy probably contracted in the weeks after the vote. But with market sentiment having improved and political... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s slight fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the real economy has generally shrugged off the financial market volatility that followed the UK’s Brexit vote, but remains sluggish. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan, Baron Munchausen and the debt swamp Baron Munchausen managed to escape a swamp by pulling on his own hair. In a similar vein, some commentators have recently argued that Japan could pull itself out of its debt morass by using carefully... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Shining a light on aluminium demand We have created a Capital Economics Demand Proxy (DP) to enhance our insight into the demand fundamentals of the aluminium market and to inform our near-term price forecasts. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The second straight rise in the manufacturing PMI in July suggests that firms have shrugged off any uncertainty caused by the UK’s vote to leave the EU. However, the appreciation of the exchange rate... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
