US Employment Report Preview Labour market remains in good health Our econometric model points to a healthy 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. As a result, the unemployment rate probably edged back down to 4.8%, from 4.9%. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle has further to go The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its deposit and lending rates by 50bp each in whatwas Indrajit Coomaraswamy’s first monetary policy meeting as governor. With credit growing at... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s rise in German inflation further into positive territory is likely to be followed by continued increases in the coming months. But even in Germany, we do not think that inflation is on track to... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira finally breaking free The Central Bank of Nigeria has loosened its grip on the naira in recent days, causing us to review our forecast. Elsewhere, South Africa’s equities and currency have outperformed. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that businesses and consumers have so far largely shrugged off the negative economic implications of the UK’s Brexit vote. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investors turn positive on industrials After dipping in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU (Brexit), the prices of most industrial metals have rallied strongly since. They have shrugged off disappointing economic news out of China... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2 16) The pace of construction activity fell across the board in the second quarter. That said, skill shortages mean that activity in the sector had been losing momentum for a year, so we would be reluctant... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (July The widespread rises in Economic Sentiment Indicators across Emerging Europe this month provide an early sign that the region’s economies have so far been unscathed by the UK’s vote to leave the EU. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 16) Data from Nationwide suggest that house price growth held broadly steady in the first month after Brexit. But the nature of the data, as well as the fact that other indicators are consistent with... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t over-interpret Greece’s glimmers of hope Recent news about Greece, including a planned return to bond issuance in 2017, may suggest that it is finally heading out of the woods. But we have been here before and with the debt burden still huge... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stockholm offices represent good value despite historically low yields Stockholm office valuations have improved since the end of the first quarter. Additionally, set against relatively mediocre rental growth in many European office markets, Stockholm’s solid growth... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50% While the second-quarter inflation figures were somewhat mixed, we still expect that the most likely outcome at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd August is an interest rate... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed edging toward a September rate hike The Fed was never going to provide a definitive steer on future rate decisions at this week's FOMC meeting, particularly not when Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil turning the corner The downturn in Latin America appears to have bottomed out in the second quarter of this year. Our GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy contracted by 1.2% y/y in Q2, compared to 1.5% y/y in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in coal production belies longer-term challenges A jump in domestic production and fall in imports of coal this year have led some to suggest that thegovernment is on track to meet its target of doubling output from end-2014 levels by 2020. But the... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (27th Jul. 16) Increases in domestic production and net imports helped US crude stocks build last week, while inventories of petroleum products fell on strong demand. 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
