Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) & Chile Activity (June) The fall in Mexican GDP in Q2 is partly payback for a strong Q1 but it also reflects the continuing drag on Mexican industry from manufacturing weakness in the US. With policy tightening now set to... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dublin’s office pipeline unlikely to lead to oversupply After several years of virtually no development, Dublin office space is set to rise by around 12% of current stock over the next few years. However, in the absence of a sharp slowdown in occupier... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How could fiscal policy be reset? We think new Chancellor Philip Hammond’s fiscal policy “reset” resulting from Brexit will involve some discretionary loosening. This will come on top of automatic stabilisers which will lower receipts... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Central Bank puts its money where its mouth is Nigeria’s self-proclaimed move to a more “flexible” exchange rate last month was initially a disappointment, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reasserting its grip at N282/US$. Over the last week... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery in EM growth pauses Our GDP Tracker suggests that the recent recovery in EM growth paused in May. Nonetheless, preliminary data from June have been more encouraging and we expect EM growth to regain some momentum over... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up FX interventions Stock markets in China have had a volatile end to the month. Meanwhile, the PBOC appears to have stepped up its foreign currency interventions in order to prevent the renminbi from weakening further... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom Slightly stronger-than-expected inflation figures, coupled with the renewed fall in the ruble, prompted the Russian central bank to pause its easing cycle today, but we think inflation should resume... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries, credit spreads and the hunt for yield We doubt that spreads on US corporate bonds are set to widen, even though we expect the yields of Treasuries to rise as the Fed tightens policy faster than investors currently anticipate. Past form... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack The music stops for oil, but coal picks up the tune It has been a mixed bag for energy commodities this month, with oil and US natural gas prices falling back due to oversupply, a stronger dollar and cooler weather. On the other hand, coal prices... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in June, in part down to the referendum and lingering effects of the stamp duty surcharge. And with the fall in new buyer enquiries unlikely to reverse soon... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures highlighted that the housing market cooled further around the time of the EU referendum. But there were no signs of a more general slowdown in lending. Nonetheless... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Preliminary Flash GDP (Q2) & Flash CPI (July) The “preliminary flash” estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed the message from national data that the economy slowed in Q2. We think that this slowdown in growth is a sign of things to come. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jun. 16) Even though net lending to property rose in June, we would hesitate to read too much into today’s figures. That said, despite the uncertainty caused by the referendum, lenders look less exposed than... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets set the pace in July Financial markets in the region have generally got off to a good start to H2. While we remain upbeat about the prospects for Asian equities, we expect Asian currencies to weaken a little against the... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is municipal debt the next frontier for QQE One widely-held view is that the Bank of Japan has refrained from stepping up its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds in recent months because the pool of available securities is drying up quickly... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2, 1st Estimate) The first estimate of Sweden’s GDP in Q2 was much weaker than expected, and the release also revealed a downward revision to growth in what was an already-soft Q1. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
