RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ to signal rates may fall below 2.0% When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Thursday 11 th August, we expect it to cut interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% and to confirm that it is willing to reduce rates further. A stubbornly high... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (May/Jun.) Detailed Chinese industrial production figures for June show that output of most industrial metals increased on the month. While the general rally in metals prices has offered incentives to boost... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (3rd Aug. 16) Crude oil stocks rose last week, despite production falling and demand from refineries increasing. On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell sharply. 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How would additional easing from the BoE affect UK markets? 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Currency policy still lacks clarity one year on from RMB panic The global market panic following the step down in the renminbi fixing rate a year ago turned out to be overdone. The currency has since weakened further, but the large scale competitive devaluation... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The drop in mortgage rates triggered by Brexit gave the refinancing sector a boost in July. But applications for home purchase dropped back, as tight credit conditions and a lack of housing inventory... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No sign of an end to political uncertainty in Spain With no sign of a government, a third Spanish election is possible. Even if one is avoided, Catalonia’s bid for independence means that political uncertainty will continue to darken Spain’s prospects... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s economy set for slowdown next year After years of regional outperformance, we expect that Uganda’s economy will slow more sharply than most expect in 2017. Even so, the external vulnerabilities that have built up during the past few... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Surveys provide first signs of post-referendum slowdown The latest data suggests that the economy dealt well with the pre-referendum uncertainty, with GDP growth picking up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.6% in Q2. But the quarterly expansion was entirely driven by... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (July) Public finances improved across the region in Q1, and timelier central government data suggest that the peripheral countries continued to perform well in Q2. Meanwhile, Portugal and Spain avoided... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Jul.) July’s final Markit/CIPS headline composite PMI confirmed the steep drop reported in the flash estimate, suggesting that the Brexit vote has had a significant near-term impact on the economy. But we... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June) & Final PMIs (July) June’s stagnation of euro-zone retail sales suggest that consumer spending ended Q2 on a weak note. And despite a small upward revision from the flash release, July’s Composite PMI points to subdued... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul. 2016) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in July, but the reading remained lacklustre by past standards. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face significant structural constraints. 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul. 2016) The sharp improvement in last month’s ‘whole economy’ PMIs in the Gulf suggest that the slowdown seen in the first half of the year may now have bottomed out. 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but cut likely soon The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% today came as no surprise. However, with price pressures benign and growth likely to slow later this year, we think a... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jul.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in July, to 8.8% y/y, will make it difficult for the central bank to justify any further loosening of monetary conditions. The easing cycle had... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
