UK Economics Weekly Will the MPC’s bazooka hit the target? While the bigger-than-expected package of measures announced by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its August policy meeting is likely to have at least some beneficial effects on the UK economy... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Has the rally in coal prices burnt out? Continued falls in demand and lower Chinese imports in the second half of the year should put downward pressure on coal prices, even if small stocks support prices in the near term. 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB set to follow BoE despite policy limitations The Bank of England’s policy action last week added to the pressure on the ECB to do more. At the moment, the ECB’s self-imposed restrictions would prevent a large expansion of its asset purchase... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt worries are overblown The revelation that Mozambique’s government has failed to disclose the true level of its foreign debts has hit sentiment towards the country, which had been seen as an African outperformer. But while... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) Today’s Halifax index painted a mixed picture for the post-referendum house price reaction. But taking a wider view, there are plenty of signs that house price inflation is set to slow markedly over... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s labour market is hiding slack Russia’s unemployment rate has hardly budged despite the deep economic downturn over the past 18 months. There does, however, appear to be “hidden” slack in the labour market, one implication of which... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Assessing Japan's fiscal stance Only a fraction of the ¥28 trillion fiscal stimulus passed by the Cabinet on Tuesday constitutes fresh public spending. What’s more, budgeted spending has been a poor guide to actual changes in public... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar punishing the RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t done itself any favours by providing no real hints that interest rates will fall below 1.5%, as the resulting strengthening in the dollar will make it even harder... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.2% y/y in Q2 from 4.9% the quarter before. While we think the worst for Indonesia’s economy is now over, a combination of fiscal tightening and low commodity prices... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices set to rise after floods Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen in July, dragged down by a sharp drop in pork price inflation. But we expect inflation to edge up again in the coming months as severe flooding across... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet be forced to cut rates below 1.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia used its new Statement on Monetary Policy to suggest that it hasn’t got much appetite for cutting interest rates below 1.5%, although its own inflation forecasts suggest... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Referendum won’t solve Thailand’s problems Thailand’s upcoming referendum on a new constitution is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the country’s political problems, and there is a real risk that tensions could once again flare up... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Wage growth rebounded in June, and the headline continues to mask solid gains in hourly earnings. Nonetheless, wages are not growing fast enough to create noticeable price pressures. 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Further gains would not store up problems Further gains in emerging markets (EMs) seem likely as the Fed shies away from hiking rates again and other major central banks loosen monetary policy. But while that may cause some concerns that the... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Have sugar prices hit a sweet spot? The price of sugar in US dollar terms has soared, rising by nearly 30% since the start of the year, on reports of poor harvests and falling stocks. However, the upward pressure on prices from... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC Yesterday’s local elections suggest that South African elections may be becoming more competitive. Foreign investors will probably welcome the fact that reduced support for the ruling ANC has helped... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
