Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Employment (Q2) The slimmed-down labour market release suggests that employment growth weakened a little in the second quarter. The RBNZ will be more worried, however, to see that there is still no sign of... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices more likely to rise than fall The recent falls in oil prices have raised concerns that the fuel could be entering a new bear market. However, we think that oil prices are more likely to rebound a little by the end of the year than... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack A strong month for metals The prices of industrial and precious metals generally rose in July, despite a strengthening dollar for much of the month and only subdued economic data out of China. However, with investors more... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the IMF: five questions (and answers) Egypt’s financial markets have responded extremely positively to the news that the government is close to securing an IMF deal, although at this stage few details about the negotiations are actually... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will US equities shrug off a rebound in the dollar? The US stock market shrugged off some renewed appreciation of the dollarafter the UK’s vote for Brexit – indeed, the S&P 500 rose to a record high inJuly. However, we expect further strength in the US... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What could the MPC’s “package of measures” consist of The package of policy options the MPC will unveil on 4th August could include rate cuts, the purchase of gilts and corporate bonds, an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), forward... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Low levels of inventory mean that, even with housing demand rising at a subdued pace, house prices are on the up. While the 0.7% m/m gain in June reported by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The strong increase in Brazilian industrial production in June was encouraging and, coming on the back of rises in output in both April and May, it looks like the sector added to q/q GDP growth for... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices shrug off France’s wider economic woes French GDP growth slowed markedly in Q2 and is set to be anaemic over the next few years. But, H1 2016 has seen a surge in office investment activity in La Défense, reflecting growing confidence in... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Brexit drag on transactions and prices to last until next year A lot has changed since our previous Analyst. Distortions relating to the stamp duty surcharge alongside a weakening economic backdrop kicked the housing market into a lower gear earlier in Q2. And... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt The attempted military coup in Turkey last month doesn’t appear to have triggered a sharp decline in capital inflows, but there are already signs that the hit to confidence will cause domestic demand... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the worst over for Indonesia and Malaysia? Economic growth in Malaysia and Indonesia has slowed markedly over the past couple of years. While we think the worst is now over for the region’s two main commodity producers, a strong rebound is... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish fundamentals stronger than Q2 GDP data suggest Sweden’s weak Q2 GDP growth rate is at odds with both the monthly economic data and the positive tone of recent surveys. As such, we suspect a decent rebound is on the cards for Q3. 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.) Today’s commercial construction PMI added to the evidence showing how negative sentiment towards the commercial property sector has become. However, if we are right that the economy will avoid a... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Stimulus package doesn’t let the BoJ off the hook The fiscal stimulus package approved by the Cabinet today will boost growth by much less than the headline figure suggests. As such, the Bank of Japan still has more work to do reach its 2% inflation... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
