Latin America Economics Update Brazil: the economic impact of the 2016 Olympic Games Despite hopes to the contrary, the Rio Games are unlikely to provide much of a boost to Brazil’s economy. We expect the country’s recession to ease further over the coming quarters, but this has... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jul.) The July UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the surge in manufacturing output in Q2 was a one-off and the vote to leave the EU has added to pressures on the sector. This supports the... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) July’s manufacturing PMIs point to a further slowdown in industrial production growth in Central Europe, to around 2% y/y, which could be an early sign of spillovers from the UK’s Brexit vote. However... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Manufacturing conditions in Emerging Asia remained lacklustre in July. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, there are some signs of improvement in Taiwan’s... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jul.) Today’s better-than-expected PMI data are consistent with our view that we should see a policy-driven pick-up in growth during the second half of this year. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to reach new record lows We believe that a new era of stubbornly low underlying inflation will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates in Australia from 1.75% now to 1.00% next year and to reduce rates in New Zealand from 2... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.2% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP growth, combined with the downward revisions to gains in the preceding two quarters, make a September interest rate hike much less likely... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Yet more policy easing to come We have scaled back our forecasts for rate hikes in the US, but still expect the Fed to raise interest rates further than is priced in by financial markets during the coming two years. At the same... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak GDP will give Fed reason to pause Despite the more hawkish language in last week’s FOMC statement, the GDP data have significantly reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike. The economy has been growing at around 1% annualised for... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly US dollar weakness supports prices Commodity prices generally drifted lower over the past week, although some support came later from a weaker US dollar. Indeed, the markets shrugged off disappointing US Q2 GDP data on Friday, given... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Growth slowed significantly around the vote Data released this week imply that GDP growth ground to a halt in the two months preceding the referendum. And survey indicators suggest that conditions worsened further in the weeks following the... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slower euro-zone GDP growth a sign of things to come We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is a sign of things to come. While the UK’s vote to leave the EU won’t be a major drag on the euro-zone, we expect growth to slow further as... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble The B.C. government’s announcement last week that it intends to impose a 15% tax on home purchases by foreign investors is unlikely to topple Vancouver’s housing bubble. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Lower rates should help lighten the mood While the outcome of the referendum has certainly dampened the sector’s mood, we believe that policymakers’ response should help allay some of the worst fears. We think that the lower exchange rate... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) Monthly GDP fell by a bigger-than-feared 0.6% m/m in May, as the Alberta wildfires triggered a massive slump in oil sands production. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
