Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increase in Mexican inflation in July, to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% y/y in June, is unlikely to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates again at Thursday’s MPC meeting. But with inflation likely... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity slump even worse than previously feared The second-quarter productivity figures, which incorporate the recent downward revisions to historical GDP, reveal that the stagnation in productivity growth was even worse than we previously believed... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Bank of England’s meaningful action boosts asset prices The prospect – and subsequent delivery – of monetary policy stimulus from the Bank of England in August has helped UK assets to continue their recovery from the shock of the vote to leave the EU... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP figures likely to show pick-up in Central Europe Preliminary Q2 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due later this week are likely to show an encouraging uptick in growth in Central Europe. Meanwhile, output in the region’s largest economy, Russia... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the post-Brexit slump be as bad as the PMIs suggest? The sharp deterioration in July’s Markit/CIPS PMIs have highlighted the danger of a deep recession in the wake of the referendum vote. While it would be unwise to dismiss this warning, there are some... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.) June’s figures on industrial production and trade were fairly disappointing, suggesting that April’s strong manufacturing growth was not sustained and net trade will probably provide little support to... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Gradual recovery after a painful adjustment Economic growth in Angola is grinding to a halt as the economy adjusts to lower oil prices. Growth will recover in 2017 and 2018, but more gradually than most expect. 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s BRC sales data show no sign of a slowdown in household spending following the EU referendum. But some other measures have been less positive, and we will have to wait until next week for the... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan holds rates in final policy meeting Governor Raghuram Rajan has developed a habit of surprising financial markets over the past three years, but there were no shocks in store in his final policy announcement today as the repo rate was... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Less rapid increases in food prices dragged down consumer price inflation last month, masking a continued pick-up in broader price pressures. Inflation is likely to edge up in the coming months... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Talks of oil production freeze too little too late We are sceptical that renewed talks of a production freeze by OPEC and other large producers will lead to an actual deal. Even if there is an agreement this time round, we doubt that freezing output... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, suggesting that the pick-up in outflows seen in June was just a blip. The big picture is that they have fallen... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the rental market losing steam? Despite some signs that the rental market is losing momentum, low rental vacancy rates and the prospect of stronger growth in average hourly earnings mean that investors in residential real estate can... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Chilean inflation in July, coming on the back of a recent weakening in the economy, means that interest rate hikes this year are now looking unlikely. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
