China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Today’s GDP figures show that Hong Kong’s economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter. However, the economy faces a number of headwinds and we expect growth to slow again in the coming quarters... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) While Q2’s GDP growth was left unrevised at 0.3% in the second estimate, the softoutlook for both growth and inflation suggests that the ECB still has more work to do. 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Broad credit is still expanding at a faster pace than during most of the past couple ofyears. But the impact of earlier monetary easing is now waning and after peaking in May, credit growth is... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru MPCs hint that tightening done, but hikes still likely Having left interest rates unchanged last night, the Chilean and Peruvian central banks both removed the reference to a tightening bias in their accompanying statements. However, with inflation likely... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will further rate cuts make a difference in Indonesia? Given the current backdrop of weak growth, low inflation and a stable currency, Bank Indonesia is likely to cut its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo rate, at its upcoming meeting. But more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Lower rates to prop up Buy-to-Let demand Lower interest rates will do little to help frustrated first-time buyers get onto the housing ladder. But they will ensure that the income returns offered by BTL investments continue to be relatively... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How vulnerable are rents to an economic downturn? Relative to their past peaks and underlying trends, rents are only worryingly high in London’s retail market. While that would not prevent large falls if the economy were to suffer a full-blown... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Malaysia’s economy slowed further in the second quarter of 2016. With the prices of its main commodity exports set to remain low and the room for policy stimulus limited, a strong rebound is not on... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) Despite the slight decline in industrial value-added growth, underlying data on output volumes suggest activity in key parts of industry continued to strengthen last month. That said, a further sharp... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would unconventional policy look like? We don’t currently believe that the RBA or RBNZ will have to resort to unconventional monetary policy to boost inflation, but one lesson of the past decade is that we should be prepared for the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Why Brazil’s real could hold on to its recent gains Given the extent of its rally over the past couple of months it’s difficult to make the case that the Brazilian real will now strengthen much further from here. But by the same token, we think there... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar bond yields hit 2014 lows Yields on emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government and corporate bonds have fallen even further in the past month as ultra-low returns in developed markets have boosted demand for riskier... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q2 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends In its Q2 Global Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council (WGC) described another strong quarter for gold demand. Renewed interest from Western investors more than offset... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Latest data suggests economy dodged recession June’s manufacturing and mining figures support our view that the South African economy expanded by about 1.5% q/q (saar) in Q2, thus avoiding a technical recession. We still expect that the economy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
