India Economics Update Gold bond scheme showing signs of success India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in July and, with the government’s sovereign gold bond scheme helping to keep a lid on imports of the precious metal, the external position is unlikely to return... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Japan’s economy stagnated in the second quarter, so spare capacity didn’t shrink any further. Adding in the deflationary impact of the stronger yen, underlying inflation should moderate further in... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The conventional wisdom is that the Bank of Japan’s large-scale bond purchases will soon dry up the pool of available assets. By contrast, we believe that QQE can continue for several more years. One... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought? Right now it is hard to find anything positive to say about Canada’s economy. Around the start of this year things seemed to be going in the right direction; with non-energy exports on a tear and the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil jumps on output freeze speculation Despite a slightly weaker dollar, the prices of most industrial metals ended the week lower on the back of mixed data out of China. While industrial activity looks to be holding up reasonably well –... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses continue to favour hiring over capex The latest data suggest that while firms are reluctant to increase capital expenditure, they are nonetheless continuing to expand their workforces. With the unemployment rate below 5%, however, the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16) The small rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that the weaker-than-expected July retail sales figures were a blip rather than the start of a more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul. 16) The acceleration in national house price growth to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflects a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The most recent... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP data highlight concerns about France and Italy Last week’s euro-zone Q2 GDP data revealed a strong contrast between the region’s strongest and weakest performers, with the French and Italian economies looking particularly vulnerable. In the second... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit This week’s data provided more evidence that business investment and the property market will be hit hard by the leave vote. But with signs of resilience in consumer spending, and the Bank of England... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul. 16) Retail sales were unchanged in July, as a rebound in motor vehicle sales was largely offset by a price-related drop back in the value of gasoline station sales. After a clearly unsustainable 4.2%... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen to drag on exports The sharp weakening of the yen in the early stages of Abenomics helped to shield Japanese exporters from the slowdown in global demand. However, the renewed strengthening of the exchange rate since... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Industrial Production (Jun.) The sharp rise in Indian consumer price inflation in July pushes it further abovethe Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. Prospects for monetary policy depend in part on who is chosen to succeed... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have consumers shrugged off Brexit? Last week’s figures suggested that households haven’t been ruffled much by the leave vote. Admittedly, we are wary about reading too much into these relatively upbeat figures. Temporary factors such... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China adds to the outperformance of EM equities Whereas the collapse in Chinese equity prices sent global markets into meltdown last summer, they have begun to drive the outperformance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in recent weeks. A shift in... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
