UK Economics Weekly Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour? On the face of it, last week’s labour market figures provided some further welcome signs that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy might not be quite as bad as many had feared. The... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Easing likely to resume in Indonesia soon Bank Indonesia (BI) left its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo, on hold today at 5.25%, but with growth struggling and inflationary pressures low, a rate cut is likely sooner rather than... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism The first raft of official data covering the post-referendum period, released this week, was surprisingly upbeat in the main. Overall, the data add weight to our view that while the economy is set to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) A drop back in gasoline prices was enough to push the annual CPI inflation rate back down to 1.3% in July, from 1.5%. The core inflation rate was unchanged at 2.1% last month, however, as the Canadian... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will term premiums anchor US Treasury yields? The term premiums of US government bonds – the parts of their yields that do not capture expectations for short-term interest rates – are unusually low. Indeed, according to the estimates of some Fed... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Lower bond yields counteract falling property yields Property yields fell again in Q2 as demand for prime property remained strong. But, with mostbond yields falling in the second quarter, property still looks fairly valued. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book - London slowdown underway With the referendum having knocked confidence, survey measures pointing to slowing economic activity and buyer numbers having fallen for six months in a row, London’s housing market is cooling. We... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey? Most information about Germany implies that the economy has continued to perform well after the UK’s Brexit vote. The main exception is the ZEW survey, which suggests that GDP growth could drop to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public finances figures gave us the first indication of how the vote to leave the EU will slow progress in reducing the deficit over the coming years. But the new Chancellor shouldn’t lose much... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas prices deflate on milder weather outlook US natural gas prices have fallen back in recent weeks, largely as a result of forecasts of milder weather. While we think that production should hold up in the second half of 2016, we are still... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Fundamentals will conquer short-term fears We have cut our forecasts for UK Commercial Property since our previous Analyst to reflect the heightened uncertainty resulting from the vote to leave the EU. In addition to penciling in a modest rise... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will underlying inflation turn negative? Our base case is that the recent strengthening of the yen will result in a further moderation in inflation excluding fresh food and energy towards zero. However, the magnitude of recent exchange rate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export struggles to continue The recent improvement in export performance across Emerging Asia owes more to the fading effects of the collapse in commodity prices on export values than a recovery in underlying demand. We expect... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why wage growth will stay low While the latest data showed that employment growth has surged in Australia and New Zealand and the unemployment rate has edged down in both economies recently, this won’t be enough to generate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf non-oil sectors struggle as austerity bites The past month has brought further evidence that non-oil sectors in the Gulf are suffering as low oil prices have started to hit home. The picture is most stark in Saudi Arabia, where official data... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
