UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign of immediate post-referendum hit to spending The UK’s vote to leave the EU means that consumer spending growth is set to slow on the back of a weakening jobs market and a squeeze on real wage growth. Confidence has already fallen since the vote... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How the ECB could overcome its QE limitations If the ECB is to accelerate and extend its asset purchases next month as we anticipate, it will need to address the programme’s limitations, particularly relating to German debt. We think that the ECB... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The quarterly contraction in Chilean GDP in Q2 is a disappointing sign that the economy remains fragile. But we don’t expect the weakness to persist and revisions to past data mean that the economy is... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weak Polish activity data for July, which point to GDP growth slowing sharply to 2.5% y/y at the start of Q3, were distorted by working-day effects. Even so, the underlying trend seems to be one... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery After a prolonged downturn, there are early signs that EM industry is finally starting to turn a corner. Our measure of EM industrial production growth picked up to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.2% in May... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the global slowdown into perspective The global economy is set to expand by less than 3% for the second year running in 2016. That is a lot less than the 4%+ growth rates seen a decade ago. But in the grand sweep of history, current... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Western investors to drive gold prices higher Despite subdued buying from key consumers – China and India – demand for gold had a strong first half of the year. Indeed, renewed interest from Western investors more than offset continued weakness... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rally in equities has further to run Indian equities have rallied over the past few months. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM equity markets, but local factors such as evidence that the government’s reform... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Capital flows out of China accelerated in July to their fastest since February, according to our latest detailed estimates. The People’s Bank responded with heavier intervention so that, despite... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s official retail sales figures suggest that consumers haven’t been ruffled by the leave vote. While we would be cautious about reading too much into one month’s figures, this provides a... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Today’s Q2 GDP data for the Philippines show that President Rodrigo Duterte has taken over a country in good shape. Although the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, Duterte’s... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) July’s labour market figures were much better than expected and forward looking indicators suggest the labour market should continue to remain healthy. However, given that part-time positions... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jul.) The trade surplus declined only slightly in July, but business surveys still point to a sharp fall in export volumes this quarter. 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth should pick up as headwinds fade After a muted performance over the past 12 months, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, albeit mainly because the drags from falling investment and inventories will fade... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack G20 blues lie ahead Residents of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) can look forward to unusually clear skies as restrictions on industry to limit pollution ahead of next month’s G20 summit come into effect. According to... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
