Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery

After a prolonged downturn, there are early signs that EM industry is finally starting to turn a corner. Our measure of EM industrial production growth picked up to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.2% in May – the second consecutive month of acceleration. The latest rise was driven by the BRICs, with industrial production strengthening in all of these economies in June. And while early industrial data in July from China and Russia were a bit softer, last month’s rise in the Markit EM manufacturing PMI to its highest level since February 2015 suggests that the recovery is likely to continue. The rebound in industry is helping to drive a more general recovery in emerging markets. Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth continued to gather pace in June. The pick-up in EM growth is one factor supporting financial markets across the emerging world, which have rallied in recent months.