Latin America Economics Update Colombia peace deal won't change near-term economic outlook According to media reports a final peace deal between the Colombian government and the FARC is likely to be announced later today at 6pm local time. This will be an historic milestone and should... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase weakened in July, as the effect of the Brexit vote knocked confidence. And while buyer sentiment has partially rebounded, lending is set to stay weak until the... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (24th Aug. 16) US crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, despite demand remaining relatively strong and production falling. 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade weakened in Q2 The latest available data show that the volume of world trade fell in Q2, although this does not seem to have dented global economic growth, which we estimate to have picked up from 2.1% annualised in... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% y/y over July as a whole, means that the headline rate is on course to breach the central bank’s 3% target... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) - 16 Brazil’s mid-month inflation data have tended to overestimate inflation over the full month recently but even so the latest rise, from 8.9% y/y to 9.0% y/y in mid-August, is likely to cause some alarm... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Private investment slowdown overstated but still worrying Private investment in China may not have slowed quite as rapidly this year as the official figures suggest. Nonetheless, the downward trend remains worrying and is likely to weigh on future growth. 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack More good news for Indonesia, but problems lie ahead The past month has given investors more reasons to be optimistic on the outlook for Indonesia’s economy. The first piece of good news came in late July when it was announced that the highly-respected... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rate cut in Iceland set to be a one-off Today’s rate cut by the Sedlabanki is likely to be a one-off. Indeed, the recent acceleration of economic growth suggests that the risks to the Bank’s new inflation forecasts are tilted to the upside... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be concerned about EM equities again? We continue to expect emerging market (EM) equities to rise further in the next couple of years, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. But the rally has fizzled out in recent days, and we suspect... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional recovery to disappoint, rates to come down Growth across Emerging Europe is likely to pick up in 2017-18, but it will be softer than most anticipate. While the region’s largest economy, Russia, will return to positive growth in the coming... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports dip in July China’s metals imports fell last month. This was not totally unexpected as the strength of imports earlier in the year had seemed at odds with relatively subdued underlying demand. Higher prices for... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation eased from 6.3% y/y in June to a weaker-than-expected 6.0% in July, but we still think that inflation will pick up again later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to hike... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Currencies remain a concern While the recent fall in the cash rate to record lows in Australia and New Zealand should help to support household spending, the effect on other areas of the economy may be more limited. For one, we... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption growth will inevitably slow The stagnation in retail sales in July was not entirely surprising. Following the 4.2% annualised surge in real consumption in the second quarter, it was inevitable that spending growth would ease to... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
