UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) Rising by £123m in July, net lending from banks and building societies to the property sector held up in the wake of June’s EU referendum. Moreover, banks and building societies have relatively low... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The declines in the Economic Sentiment Indicators this month in Central and Eastern Europe support our view that growth in these economies is likely to weaken in the coming quarters. But the strength... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does sterling’s fall mean for hotels and central London retail? Some commentators have touted the recent fall in sterling as a ray of light for hotels and central London retail. However, we think that any uplift to occupier markets will be modest, as the... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slump in Saudi economy deepens Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slump in Saudi Arabia’s economy has deepened, with output falling by more than 2% y/y in June. A recovery is likely to get underway over the rest of this year and in... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA not in a rush, but rates may fall to 1.0% next year Glenn Stevens is unlikely to end his decade as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia with a bang, as interest rates will almost certainly be left at 1.5% at his last policy meeting on Tuesday 6th... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Jul.) Today’s labour market data showed that job growth accelerated further in July. As the number of people in paid employment continues to rise rapidly, consumer spending should recover further this... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2) The continuing slump in mining output pulled annual growth in Colombia down to just 2.0% y/y in Q2. We expect it to fall further over the second half of the year. 29th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lending growth continues to recover Money and credit growth in the major advanced economies have held up remarkably well this year, despite overall economic growth remaining lacklustre. Indeed, lending to households is now expanding... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why is the inventory of homes for sale so low? The key driver of low levels of existing home inventory looks to be movers deciding to keep hold of their previous home rather than selling it. In turn, that behaviour has been encouraged by ultra-low... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus shifts to US payrolls Hawkish comments by some Fed officials and a slight strengthening of the US dollar ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday weighed on the prices of most commodities over the past week... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of residential investment unlikely to last After providing a small but valuable contribution to growth over the past couple of years, residential investment unexpectedly became a drag in the second quarter, contracting at a 7.7% annualised... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2 Our calculations suggest that monthly GDP rebounded by 0.5% m/m in June which, if GDP in the first two months of the quarter was unrevised, would translate into a 1.5% annualised decline in the second... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Markets shrug off Yellen’s warning of stronger case for tightening 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What is Italy’s referendum all about? Italy’s forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform is expected to take place in October or November. If the reform is accepted, it could make governments more stable and passing legislation... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial rents in Emerging Europe stabilise Stronger economic growth in Q2 helped to prevent further falls in the majority of prime retail and industrial rents across the central and eastern European region. Rents may, therefore, have found a... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul. 16) A lack of inventory is constraining existing home sales, with July’s drop reversing much of the growth seen in the previous three months. Indeed, the number of existing homes for sale is now at a 15... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
