Commodities Chart Pack Dollar strength weighs on commodities The prices of most commodities retreated in late August as the dollar strengthened on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed will raise rates this year. That said, activity data out of China... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Are US equities set for a rougher ride? Although a lack of volatility in the US stock market has often given way to amajor correction, we don’t interpret the recent low level of the VIX index as asign that equity prices are about to plummet... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Business surveys published earlier today paint a mixed picture of global manufacturing conditions. Activity in China appears to have stabilised, but the sharp fall in the US ISM index suggests, at... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip We think the Egyptian pound could fall by as much as 25% against the US dollar, to 12.0/US$, by end-2017 if the authorities shift to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its prospective IMF deal. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in August is disappointing, particularly coming on the back of consecutive increases in the previous two months. However, the decline was relatively modest and... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why EM investors don’t seem to care about China any more 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.4 in August, from 52.6, is another reason to believe that the Fed will take a cautious approach and delay the next rate hike until December. With that... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Could policymakers cope with another downturn? Policymakers gathering in Jackson Hole last week highlighted that a fall in equilibrium real interest rates means that central banks may have little room to cut rates in the event of another recession... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will be on hold for some time The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th September. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China engaging in QE by the back door? A number of commentators have recently drawn attention to a rapid rise in lending by the People’s Bank to domestic banks and suggested that this represents a form of stealth credit expansion or... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor sentiment sours The prices of most metals fell last month, undermined by some strengthening of the US dollar as a result of renewed expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.) The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI for August confirmed out suspicions that the sharp drop in July was an overreaction and adds to other survey evidence suggesting that the economy is getting over the... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the Brexit vote put the brakes on car spending? Spending on the high street has remained resilient in the few months after the referendum. But one area of spending where Brexit uncertainty may already be taking its toll is car sales. The 72,727... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The sharp decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI looks worrying. But we wouldn’t panic; the survey has become a less reliable leading indicator recently. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris office rents on course to surpass consensus forecasts In the first half of 2016, prime office rental values in Paris have already matched the full year increase predicted by the IPF consensus forecasts. With take-up strong and a limited supply of quality... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The latest batch of PMIs from Emerging Europe suggests that, in aggregate, the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened last month. But the surveys provide further evidence that Turkey’s economy has... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
