Energy Update What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil The statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier today that the two countries have agreed to work together to try to stabilise the oil market did very little to justify the almost 6% surge in oil... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk of Spain missing its deficit targets is building As Mariano Rajoy would benefit most from another election, his opponents may yet let him form a government. But with the public finances deteriorating and the deadline for the 2017 budget to be... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth slows but full-blown recession should be avoided At first glance, the economy appears to have brushed off the EU referendum. The economy was performing well prior to the vote, with GDP and employment growth both accelerating in Q2. Meanwhile... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug. 2016) The outlook for rental and capital values, as well as total returns, was down graded in August’s consensus forecast. Yet with the spectrum of forecasts now much wider, and the prospects of a... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone government finances at the start of the third quarter of 2016 were much more of a mixed bag than the reasonably impressive figures from the first half of the year. Worryingly, the data... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Aug.) August’s Markit/CIPS services PMI confirmed that the collapse seen in July was a temporary reaction to the shock of the vote to leave the EU. But we doubt this will prevent the MPC from easing... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) Euro-zone retail sales started Q3 strongly but growth is set to slow in the coming months. Indeed, the downward revision to August’s euro-zone Composite PMI hints at the challenges facing the economy... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New RBI governor faces hard task in meeting targets CPI inflation data for August are likely to show that the headline rate eased a touch, but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. With the new governor, Dr Urjit Patel... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) The dip in Egypt’s PMI last month suggests that, while financial markets have welcomed the announcement of an IMF deal, business sentiment doesn’t appear to have received a boost. Meanwhile, PMIs from... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August, to 8.0% y/y, is likely to be used as justification by the central bank for further modest interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, we remain of... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) Wage growth held up better than expected in July, helped by faster growth in bonus payments. But with regular earnings still expanding at a sluggish pace, wage growth is set to moderate over the... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices get a payrolls boost A weaker-than-expected US employment report on Friday all but removed the prospect of a US interest rate rise this month, although we still think a hike is likely before the end of the year. The... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Taking stock of the EIA’s oil inventories report The gyrations in oil prices in response to the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report are rarely justified, since the biggest determinant of weekly changes in US stocks is variations in net crude... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Construction PMI does not change the outlook for housebuilding The rebound in the construction PMI, and, in particular, the housebuilding component, is a welcome development. But on its own, it will not prevent housebuilding from taking a backwards step in the... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Does it make sense to raise the inflation target? The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting this Wednesday. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in its... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
