Global Markets Update Are EM equity valuations really too high? Overly pessimistic projections for earnings of emerging market (EM) corporations mean that the price/12month forward earnings ratios of equity markets appear to be artificially high. Admittedly, EM... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3 The first Q3 South African output data support our view that the rapid growth reported in Q2 is unlikely to be sustained. The economy may post positive growth in 2016 as a whole, but only marginally. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Chilean inflation in August takes it firmly back within the central bank’s target range and reinforces our view that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for a prolonged... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Are negative interest rates working? Negative interest rates have succeeded in lowering bond yields and bank lending rates in Japan without undermining lenders’ willingness to provide credit. However, credit growth has nonetheless... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounced back in August After a slowdown in July, growth in China’s commodity import volumes rebounded in August. This was perhaps to be expected as July activity indicators were encouraging and the unofficial manufacturing... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further sharp rise in Egyptian inflation, to 15.5% y/y in August, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting later this month. With further subsidy cuts on the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) Today’s rebound in the RICS survey data suggest that the post-referendum housing market malaise is wearing off. But with the majority of the survey’s measures still weak, the market is still some... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales’ strong start to Q3 won’t be sustained The first official euro-zone data release for July – retail sales – suggested that the consumer sector made a strong start to Q3. Indeed, the 1.1% rise in sales pushed the annual growth rate up to 2.7... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The collapse in Turkish industrial production in July provides a clear sign that the coup attempt caused severe disruptions to the economy. And leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI suggest... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) A pick-up in export growth points to some welcome improvement in external demand while the sharp recovery in import growth hints at stronger domestic demand. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul.) Even though the international trade deficit narrowed in July, net exports are still on course to remain a drag on real GDP growth in the third quarter. The external sector could really do with the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of a possible swing towards fiscal stimulus? 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Coffee prices perking up The prices of both robusta and arabica coffee are now at close to 18-month highs, as a result of weather-related crop damage, concerns about future supply and falling export volumes. However, if... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the pendulum swinging towards fiscal stimulus? With global growth still lacklustre, monetary policy seemingly ineffective and government bond yields unprecedentedly low, the case for fiscal stimulus has become more compelling. Partly as a result... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut The Bank of Canada issued a relatively dovish statement today, warning that “risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July”. 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
