US Economics Update Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy The unexpected slump in the ISM non-manufacturing index to a six-year low of 51.4 in August, from 55.5, should all but rule out any possibility of a September rate hike, particularly as the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why we doubt US credit spreads will rise when the Fed tightens 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: revisiting the hit from lower oil prices Saudi Arabia’s upcoming Eurobond issuance has thrust the country’s finances back under the spotlight. Overall, the hit from lower oil prices has been significant – annual oil export revenues are down... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The large 0.9% m/m gain in house prices reported by CoreLogic in July is likely to be revised down in due course. But with inventory levels at 15-year lows, the conditions are in place for house price... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Troubled States only a small part of Brazil’s fiscal problems There is little doubt that the finances of Brazil’s State governments are in dire straits, but there is some confusion as to how this relates to the wider fiscal position. The key point is that the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack No post-Brexit crisis, but world economy still struggling The latest surveys suggest that the UK economy has slowed but not slumped following the EU referendum, while growth in the world as a whole has remained sluggish. The US economy looks set to pick up a... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) Strong q/q growth in Q2 mostly reflects a bounce back following the disaster of Q1. We expect that growth will be sluggish in the second half of the year. 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q2) Today’s final estimate of Q2 GDP confirmed that the slowdown in growth from the first quarter was largely due to household spending. Over the rest of the year, we think that consumer spending will... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) August’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor points to a large dip in official retail sales growth. But the survey hasn’t been an especially good guide of retail sales recently. 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA thinks it’s done enough The policy statement released alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.5% today provides no hint that another rate cut is around the corner. If the inflation... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investor interest on the wane A stronger US dollar on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed will hike rates by the end of the year weighed on the prices of most industrial and precious metals last month. The only metals... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US Treasuries still vulnerable to waning demand from foreigners 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
