Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) Despite the further rise in “core” machinery orders in July, it still appears that business investment has stagnated. Indeed, other surveys of activity are hardly reassuring. 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession fears continue to ease This week’s data provided further support for our view that the near-term hit to the economy won’t be as severe as many of the pessimistic pre-referendum forecasts. Indeed, while the economy has... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yields to fall further as monetary policy stays looser for longer The UK’s decision to leave the EU has weakened the economic outlook for the euro-zone and increased expectations that the ECB will keep monetary policy looser for longer. While slower economic growth... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A roller-coaster week for oil The price of oil has alternately surged and plunged this week, buffeted by a sharp (but probably temporary) fall in US stocks and speculation about prospects for supply. Indeed, stability in prices... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty mounts over pick-up in GDP growth There is now a marked gap opening up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softer rental growth outlook will be offset by further yield compression In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, central banks have signalled a looser monetary policy stance ahead. Nevertheless, we expect economic growth to be weaker, which has led us to reduce our... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will Birmingham property continue to outperform? The UK’s decision to leave the EU has weakened the economic outlook for the euro-zone and increased expectations that the ECB will keep monetary policy looser for longer. While slower economic growth... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble still a tale of two cities The reported 23% y/y decline in Vancouver home sales in August unsurprisingly prompted claims in the media last week that the new foreign buyer tax, which took effect at the start of last month, had a... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.0% y/y drop in Mexican industrial production in July will grab the headlines, but this figure was distorted by working day effects. And the fact that output rose in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down The ECB’s decision last week not to announce an extension to its asset purchase programme led us to revise our year-end forecast for the euro exchange rate. But we still think that looser monetary... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.16) The 26,000 rebound in employment in August looks good at first glance but, following the 31,200 decline in July, that still means employment is down slightly over the past three months as a whole. The... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Time to dump the junk? Yet another scaling back of investors’ expectations about Fed policy has breathed new life into the rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds. But we suspect that the best days are now behind them... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s inflation data are not going to provide any reassurance to Brazilian policymakers that now is the time to begin lowering interest rates. The headline inflation rate rose to a three-month high... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the MPC jump the gun in August? The resilience of the recent data has prompted some commentators to question whether the MPC was wrong to cut Bank Rate to 0.25% and announce new gilt purchases of £60bn and corporate bond purchases... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
