UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s stable CPI inflation rate is a temporary pause in an upward trend that should see it rise above the MPC’s target next year. But prospect of above-target inflation probably won’t stop the... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional growth to stay subdued in 2017-18 The Middle East and North African economies have slowed sharply this year and growth is likely to be much weaker than the consensus expects in 2017-18. Growth in the Gulf will remain sluggish as the... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Despite weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation in August, price pressures are set to increase in the coming months. And as higher inflation feeds through to inflation expectations, the Riksbank will... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account position improved by more than we’d expected in Q2, but the shortfall will still probably remain relatively wide over the coming year. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Better-than-expected data out of China today raise hopes that policymakers’ efforts to reverse the slide in investment growth are seeing some success. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug. 16) Despite weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation in August, price pressures are set to increase in the coming months. And as higher inflation feeds through to inflation expectations, the Riksbank will... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU prospects threatened by risk of further referendums Since the UK’s Brexit vote, eurosceptic parties elsewhere have increased their calls for referendumson EU or euro membership. While the potential for eurosceptics to gain power and hold votesvaries... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Eurobond provides boost to confidence in fragile economy The successful launch of Ghana’s fifth Eurobond is a sign of the markets’ growing confidence in the country. While the economy remains fragile, we expect that the worst is now behind us. 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why this isn’t the beginning of the end for EM equities We have warned for some time that emerging market (EM) equities will be more volatile as attention turns back to the Fed. Momentum may yet drive stocks lower in the near term, but we continue to... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC pushes back market rebalancing OPEC production remained at near-record highs in August. What’s more, the group revised up its estimate of non-OPEC output for both this year and next. 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why are central banks giving a cold shoulder to gold in 2016? Since 2010 central banks have become major buyers of gold, accounting on average for about 10% of total gold demand over the past five years. However, demand from the official sector has been... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) The fall in India’s consumer price inflation rate last month brings it into line with the RBI’s near-term target. This may fuel talk of more interest rate cuts but we think that scope for further... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Aug. 16) Commercial property investment slumped again in August as the market continued to absorb the implications of June’s vote to leave the EU. But with the preliminary evidence seeming to back our view... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
