Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in sales volumes in July shows that manufacturing is moving in the right direction, but the broader pace of growth is still very disappointing given the strong boost that the... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 16) Although core CPI inflation edged higher in August, it has been broadly unchanged this year, suggesting that the Fed doesn’t need to rush to raise interest rates next week. 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market Even when the euro-zone economy seems to have performed fairly well, it has still been unable to generate any inflationary pressure. Indeed, despite the reasonably strong rate of employment growth in... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jobs market should weather economic slowdown well The extent of any post-referendum slowdown in consumer spending will hinge crucially on developments in the labour market. While last week’s labour market figures showed little sign of a Brexit impact... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are US OIS rates really telling us about future Fed policy? US overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates have been driven down by a confluence of factors, some of which are unrelated to expectations for conventional monetary policy. As a result, caution should be... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Hitting the target? Average inflation in the G7 is likely be over 2% next year as the impact of past falls in energy prices fades. In the US, core inflation is already close to the target and will probably continue... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Foreign investors not Finnished with Helsinki Investment demand for Finnish property in H1 more than matched that seen in H1 2015 as Nordic investors and German funds targeted its higher income yields. We think this demand will keep investment... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Comprehensive policy review should deliver more easing The announcement that a comprehensive assessment of monetary policy would be carried out at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting has triggered even more speculation than usual about possible changes of... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly End of tourism boom no disaster The stronger yen has brought Japan’s tourism boom to a halt. However, the importance ofoverseas visitors for economic activity remains small. The bigger risks from the appreciation ofthe exchange rate... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Berlin election to add to signs of euro-scepticism This Sunday’s election in Berlin is set to bring more evidence of the growing influence of the far-right AfD. While the party does not have enough support to govern Germany, its rise will encourage a... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Baht not to blame for Thailand’s export woes Recent claims by Thai exporters and policymakers that a “strong” baht is to blame for the country’s poor export performance are wrong. The baht does not look strong relative to the currencies of its... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Can the kiwi dollar rise to parity against the Aussie? The impressive performance of New Zealand’s economy in the second quarter has contributed to the strengthening in the New Zealand dollar towards parity with the Australian dollar. Our economic... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower import bill will keep trade deficit in check The monthly trade deficit narrowed a touch in August and, with a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is unlikely to return as a source of... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for consumers remain reasonably bright Weak US retail sales data for August, released earlier today, were the latest sign that the consumer recoveryin the developed world is losing pace. Even so, the prospects for household spending over... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Spare oil production capacity ample for now We think that concerns about the lack of spare capacity in the oil market are overdone as supply is already ample and stocks are high. However, as the market tightens over the next few years, low... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
