UK Housing Market Update Have policymakers tamed BTL? The fact that buy-to-let lending is now running at barely half last year’s levels could be a sign that policymakers have succeeded in choking-off demand. But we think the fact that BTL lending grew in... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN ignores government, maintains tight policy The MPC’s decision to hold rates at 14.00%, thus rebuffing government calls for looser interest rates is an encouraging sign of the bank’s independence. We expect that rates will have to rise later... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 16) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates accelerated in August, with a particularly pronounced pick-up in narrow M1 money growth, but bank loan growth has slowed slightly. The latter is... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are investors starting to become wary about Dublin valuations? Relative to other European cities, property valuations in Dublin are edging towards being overvalued. Nonetheless, while there seems to be little scope for further significant falls, with good rental... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary MPC’s deposit facility tweaks may do less than billed The decision by the Hungarian MPC to limit the use of its three-month deposit facility has been signalled as an effort to loosen monetary conditions, but recent experience suggests that it’s unlikely... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug. 16) As expected, housing starts fell back in August. But more of a worry is that building permits fell for the second consecutive month, indicating that builders have yet to respond to tight market... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Jul./Aug.) Detailed Chinese industrial production figures for August paint a mixed picture of refining activity. While refined copper production was growing strongly, there were sharp downturns in tin and nickel... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug. 16) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output fell by 0.2% y/y in August. So far this year, output in the World ex China has risen, while China’s production... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Investors take fright in the Philippines Financial markets in the Philippines have fallen back in recent weeks amid growing concern over the increasingly erratic behaviour of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. Following his... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China were stable last month after rising slightly in July. Global investors continued to pull money out of the country, but Chinese... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Equity prices come off the boil Global equity markets have come off the boil over recent weeks, particularly in emerging economies, as the prospect of another hike in US interest rates before the end of the year grows. UK equity... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed The big gap that has opened up between the CPI and PCE measures of core price inflation is now largely due to just one category, medical care. The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily UK macroprudential policy is set to support credit supply 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Low inflation won’t prevent a euro-zone slowdown Rising inflation may be less of a drag on the growth of euro-zone household spending than we had previously feared. But spending growth is still likely to slow, weakening a key support for overall... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy continued to pull out of its slump, albeit very slowly. The recovery is still being driven by industry, but there are no signs of improvement... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
