Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Sep. 16) Flash PMIs published today point to a small pick-up in growth in the manufacturingsector in Japan and the euro-zone, but a decline in the US. Advanced economies overallare still struggling, whereas... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada quiet on monetary policy options In a strange speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz acknowledged that the so-called neutral real interest rate was now much lower than before the financial crisis. But in his prepared... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) The decline in the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of core CPI inflation to a two-year low of 1.8% in August, from 2.1%, shows that the upward pressure on prices from last year’s slump in the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unlikely to follow in Bank of Japan’s footsteps The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will replace its target for the monetary base with a 0% target for 10-year government bond yields has prompted speculation about whether the ECB might follow... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the economy in a Brexit sweet spot? The UK economy may be in a bit of a post-referendum “sweet spot” in which some of the positive developments which we have expected to cushion the impact of the vote – including MPC action and the drop... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Like the economy, property is holding up well August was a slow month for the commercial property sector. However, the worst fears about a deep recession seem to be dissipating, and overseas investors have been undeterred by the post-referendum... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Q2 GDP data not as bad as they appear The bigger-than-expected drop in Argentine GDP in Q2 was alarming, but it was due largely to a slump in exports, which should be temporary. The pace of contraction in domestic demand eased and the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 20-month low implies that the already sluggish pace of expansion in the currency union lost further momentum at the end of the quarter. 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Mortgage surge not the key driver of stronger credit Growth in long-term loans to households, which consist mostly of mortgages, has jumped since early 2015 as the property market has heated up. In contrast, growth in other loans has slowed over the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Swedish industrial rents have reached a plateau? Buoyant occupier demand for logistics space in Sweden is being met by above-average levels of new supply. However, prime industrial rents in Stockholm will be driven upward as conversion of existing... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Myanmar: A six month progress report In the six months since Myanmar’s new civilian government took power, it has made a decent start in addressing some of the country’s problems. However, Myanmar will not fulfil its potential unless the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is rising real estate debt a cause for concern? Data from the Bank of Japan show that bank lending to real estate companies reached a record high last quarter and, on some measures, property prices have been rising rapidly too. However, broader... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The fourth straight rise in the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector continued to take the strong appreciation of the exchange rate in its stride. However, the weakness in price pressures should... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risks around our dollar forecasts Recent events have made our forecast that both the Australian and New Zealand dollars will weaken to around US$0.65 next year look aggressive. But while the risks to those forecasts lie on the upside... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to cut interest rates to zero next year The Norges Bank left its key policy rate on hold today and signalled that no change was likely in the remainder of the year. But we think that more monetary loosening will be needed in 2017. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates to stay low in the Philippines With the economy growing strongly but inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank inthe Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
