Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Even though small business confidence remains consistent with falling industrial production despite a rebound in September, firms’ forecasts for October suggest that conditions are on the mend. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to opt for policy continuity Much of the commentary in the run-up to Dr Urjit Patel’s first policy meeting as RBI governor on 4th October has been focused on whether he will take on the mantle of his predecessor Raghuram Rajan... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates on hold, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next policy meeting on Tuesday 4 th October will be the first led by the new Governor, Philip Lowe, but that’s the only thing we expect to change. Interest rates... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Falling inflation adds to Bank of Canada’s concerns The fall in core inflation to a two-year low of 1.8% in August adds to the growing list of concerns for the Bank of Canada. The Canadian dollar’s sharp decline in 2014 and 2015 had kept core inflation... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve If Donald Trump wins November’s presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December FOMC meeting... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low EM inflation is now at a seven-year low. Looking ahead, it is set to ease further in most major commodity producing EMs over the coming months, providing central banks with room to cut interest rates. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul. 16) House price gains are picking up pace as buyers compete for a very limited number of homes for sale. At the national level, the 0.4% m/m rise in July was the largest for six months. And with supply... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkish downgrade puts economic slowdown in spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Turkey’s sovereign credit rating this month and the loss of the country’s investment grade status caused a small and short-lived sell-off in local financial markets, but perhaps... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the recent strength in retail sales growth won’t last for much longer. But the survey hasn’t been an especially good guide of retail sales, so... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s money and credit data suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a decent pace in Q3. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain well below the ECB’s target. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian dollar bonds perform well as IMF deal edges closer Yields on Egyptian dollar bonds have edged down over the past month as the government has moved closer to securing an IMF deal. One of the likely lending conditions, however, is that the authorities... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket at the start of October will have minimal impact on foreign demand for renminbi assets and therefore offers little support for the Chinese... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s constitutional referendum poses economic risks The Government confirmed today that the constitutional reform referendum will take place on 4thDecember. We think that a rejection of the reforms is a major risk to the economic outlook. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economics, not elections, the key to US equity performance The outcome of forthcoming elections in the US is unlikely to have a major bearing on the performance of its stock market, if history is a useful guide. Economics will matter more than politics. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
