Energy Update US natural gas prices unlikely to rise much further Stronger supply and weaker demand from utilities over the next few months, assuming normal weather, should help keep the price of US natural gas steady until the end of the year. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rise in repo rate not a sign of policy tightening With the renminbi on the cusp on joining the IMF’s SDR basket, the PBOC appears to have been working hard to hold it steady in recent weeks. Meanwhile, attention has been drawn to a pick-up in the 7... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep. 16) While house price growth slowed a touch in September, the bigger picture is one of resilience in the face of the Brexit vote. Yet the fundamentals suggest that prices are still very high, meaning that... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Consumer confidence bounced back to pre-referendum levels in September in another sign that households are shaking off their initial post-Brexit vote blues. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Large Brussels pipeline to allow Antwerp retail rents to get ahead A subdued outlook for consumption and a large pipeline of new retail developments will mean that rental values in Brussels stagnate next year. But for the first time in at least 15 years, limited new... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Offshoring, the yen & inflation Japanese manufacturers continue to increase production in their overseas subsidiaries. However, only a fraction of the goods produced overseas are re-imported to Japan. With the overall importance of... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New president of the Philippines risks undoing recent gains When Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines on 30 th June, we warned that although the fundamentals were in place for the economy to grow strongly, his election had made the outlook much... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that the recent pick-up in activity may have extended into September, consistent with our forecasts for growth to have edged up in Q3. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FDI inflows should recover soon Concerns in some quarters over the slowdown in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in Q2 appear to be overdone. For a start, a smaller current account deficit means that India is now far less... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand? The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t significantly worsen if Donald Trump became US President. Neither economy is particularly exposed to the threat of higher trade barriers... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Aug.) While the consumer spending data send conflicting messages for Q3 GDP growth, the solid rise in industrial production in August strongly suggests that Japan’s economy continued to recover in the third... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up the peso, further hikes likely The 50bp hike in Mexican interest rates (to 4.75%) at Thursday’s meeting was aimed squarely at supporting the peso. We expect another half-point increase at December’s meeting, taking rates to 5.25%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations suggest “junk” bonds are still vulnerable Dollar-denominated non-investment government bonds have struggled in the past week and, with stripped spreads still low, we expect more tough times in the months ahead. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Help to Buy won’t be missed Help-to-Buy: mortgage guarantee successfully kick-started the market for high LTV mortgages back in 2014. But such loans are now increasingly provided without government support. As a result, we think... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish economy could suffer from political chaos The consequences of a third election in Spain would be worse than those of earlier votes. And with Catalonia renewing its push for independence, politics represent a clear risk to the economic outlook... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Reform progress provides healthy backdrop for EM equities Most emerging market (EM) countries have made further progress on implementing structural reforms in the past year. While this broad increase in competitiveness supports our view that EM stock markets... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
