Commodities Chart Pack A positive month for commodities Encouraging Chinese economic data and the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates on hold boosted the prices of most commodities last month. That said, gold traded in a narrow range, perhaps starting... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 16) After a sharp fall in August, the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September should soothe fears that the US economy is headed for a serious downturn. Nevertheless, the index remains at a... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The slight increase in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in September was encouraging, but a fall in the new export orders component could be an early sign that the rebound in the real over the past... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the construction sector dig itself out of trouble? The first raft of economic data covering the post-referendum period has been fairly robust. But not all sectors have been performing well, with the construction sector still in the doldrums. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to worry about the pound While the pound’s latest dip has partly reflected concerns over the prospect of a “hard Brexit”, thecurrency’s depreciation should continue to cushion the economic impact of the vote to leave the EU. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, but remained relatively weak. The indicator has been unreliable lately, but the tepid result supports our view that the economic acceleration... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Sep.) The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI for September showed that both the domesticand export-facing parts of the manufacturing sector are weathering the Brexit vote well. And the sector should contribute... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political Colombian voters’ rejection of the government’s peace deal with the FARC rebel group is unlikely to signal an immediate return to violence. And, while it is a significant blow to the economy’s medium... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail rents enjoying a purple patch A solid and strengthening outlook for the Polish consumer sector will keep demand for prime retail units buoyant over the next couple of years. This will enable prime retail rents in Warsaw to grow by... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that Russia’s gradual recovery continued at the end of Q3, while growth in Central Europe was relatively strong. Elsewhere, the sharper-than-expected fall in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The drop in India's manufacturing PMI in September provides a reminder that, despite progress on the reform front, local industry still faces significant headwinds. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The PMIs for Emerging Asia in September were mostly encouraging, suggesting that manufacturing conditions in the region are slowly gaining a firmer footing. However, the struggles of Korea’s... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Q3 According to today’s Tankan survey, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained the weakest they have been seen the launch of QQE, while conditions in non-manufacturing continued to worsen. The... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could the neutral rate be even lower? While the decline in the neutral real fed funds rate in recent years can be explained in part by the decline in potential GDP growth, there are other factors, including increased risk aversion, higher... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Are yield ceilings the future for monetary policy? The Bank of Japan’s decision last week to begin targeting long-term bond yields marks a major shift in the conduct of monetary policy and is the latest sign that central banks are worried about the... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
