Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) There have been further signs of fiscal slippage in the peripheral economies this month. Germany is also planning a tax cut, but this does not mark a dramatic change in its fiscal stance. It intends... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is services inflation slowing? While the collapse in energy prices over the past two years explains some of the recent decline in services inflation, we suspect that it mostly reflects the sluggish state of consumer spending... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) The value of China’s FX reserves declined further last month, as the People’s Bank continued to intervene heavily to shore up the renminbi. With few signs that capital outflow pressures are abating... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Decent GDP growth in Q3, but headwinds persist The recent run of better-than-expected economic news means that GDP growth in Australia probably held up fairly well in the third quarter. However, given that there are still notable headwinds, it... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Wage growth slowed in August as the bonus payments slumped after the end of the summer bonus season. While growth in hourly wages remains strong, we expect it to fall again in coming months. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Prague offices at a turning point? The current sweet spot for Prague office occupier demand isn’t likely to last for long. Next year will see vast levels of new completions alongside a slowdown in demand growth. Nevertheless, we expect... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices drive inflation rebound Headline inflation likely rose last month on the back of a pick-up in food prices. But after a near-term rise, we expect price pressures to ease again further ahead. 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily ECB more likely to extend, than taper, its asset purchases 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US election and “Brexit” having little economic impact The upcoming Presidential election does not seem to be having much impact on economic activity either in the US itself or elsewhere. Admittedly, it looks at first sight as if recent movements in... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up Some analysts have argued that Egypt won’t devalue the pound until the country has a sustainable source of capital inflows, but we think this misses the point. The country is unlikely to experience a... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Dovish RBI risks stoking inflation pressures Consumer price inflation probably eased in September, which may bolster the more dovish position the RBI adopted at its policy meeting this week. But a looser monetary stance is likely to add to... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in August rounds off a good week of data for the Australian economy and suggests that GDP growth in the third quarter may have been stronger than the 0.5% q/q... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017 The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Iceland will keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Election doesn’t seem to be holding back the economy There is little evidence that the upcoming presidential election played any role in the weakness of economic growth in the first half of this year or, despite the early optimism, what is shaping up to... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
