Emerging Europe Economics Focus The consequences of Turkey’s inflation problem There is mounting evidence that the Turkish central bank’s pursuit of loose monetary policy has caused inflation expectations to become unanchored, risking an upward wage-price spiral. As we explain... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The better-than-expected rise in retail sales in August will go some way to allaying growing concerns, such as those highlighted by the RBA yesterday, that the easing in consumption growth in the... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The improvement in consumer confidence in September suggests that the recent surge in the household saving rate is unlikely to continue. Another positive sign is that inflation expectations seem to be... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the IMF's latest forecasts? The tone of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, published today, was decidedly gloomy. But we suspect that their forecasts will need to be lowered further over the coming year or so. 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Industrials steal the show Most metals prices have trended higher over the past month, on signs that the monetary and fiscal stimulus enacted earlier in the year in China is starting to feed through into stronger activity... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 6.4% y/y in September is unlikely to have any impact on the outlook for monetary policy over the rest of this year, but it does reinforce our view... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 16) Even accounting for the fact that the first estimate of house prices by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it is clear the house prices are accelerating. After seasonal-adjustment prices surged... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.8% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in August isn’t quite as bad as it seems at first sight. Around two-thirds of the fall was due to a drop in vehicle output, which was affected by a... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More dovish RBI may have to reverse course in 2017 Today’s surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India sends a signal that the new governor and MPC will prioritise growth even at the risk of missing targets for inflation. That’s a break from the... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Sep. 16) September’s construction PMI surpassed market expectations. That said, the bulk of the improvement came from the civil engineering and housing segments, while activity in the commercial sector only... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed message about euro-zone growth Recent activity indicators have provided mixed messages about euro-zone growth. The Composite PMI fell to an 18-month low in September, whereas the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reached a... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, same story By leaving interest rates at 1.5% and the policy statement mostly unchanged at his first meeting as Governor, Philip Lowe showed he is cut from much the same cloth as his predecessor. But while Lowe... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep. 16) The manufacturing PMIs published today and late last week suggest that global growth was broadly steady in September. The biggest news was from the US where the ISM manufacturing survey rebounded... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
