Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA, inflation and November The inflation figures for the third quarter would need to be much weaker than the Reserve Bank of Australia expects in order to prompt a cut in interest rates to 1.25% at November’s policy meeting... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) Industrial production data for August suggest that, in contrast to the upbeat message from the strong GDP data, Indian industry is still in the doldrums. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US dollar likely to fall against other major currencies if Trump wins 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What’s driving the surge in Build-to-Rent? Record demand for rented homes, rock-bottom interest rates and an unusually low spread between commercial and residential property income returns have triggered a surge in build-to-rent activity this... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a Trump win mean for the US dollar? The heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty that would follow a victory for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely see the dollar weaken against traditional safe... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Poor health of the king is the key risk to Thai growth outlook The worsening health of the King of Thailand poses a key risk to the country’s economy. His death would plunge the country back into political crisis, which in turn could push the economy into... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Political crisis rocks African growth star The government’s decision to establish a state of emergency could worsen Ethiopia’s rolling political crisis. The deteriorating situation risks knocking the country off its current growth trajectory. 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilises Saudi Arabia’s economy didn’t perform as badly as we had feared in Q2 and our GDP Tracker suggests that things have stabilised at the start of Q3. That said, more timely data and recent policy... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel prices on increasingly shaky ground The price of nickel has had a good run, but ultimately stocks are high, demand is unexciting albeit solid and supply prospects may improve. As such, we suspect that prices will struggle in the near... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egyptian inflation dipped to 14.1% y/y in September, but this is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend. Policymakers are edging to closer to an IMF deal, so a fresh devaluation of the pound... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production rebounded in August, after July’s slump, but the bigger picture is that growth weakened over the first two months of Q3 and September’s manufacturing PMI suggests that... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The increase in Mexican inflation in September, to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in August, means that headline CPI is now at the central bank’s target and leaves it on track to move above target over the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack UK equities could fare even better Since the UK’s vote to leave the EU, the shares of medium- and large-sized companies have fared better in the UK than in many other advanced economies, owing to the slide in sterling. In common... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business outlook improves, but still relatively weak The Bank of Canada’s Autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that the drag from the collapse in crude oil prices last year is finally fading. However, there are still few signs that the recovery will be... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Hard” Brexit worries hit the pound Markets have been shaken this week by the fallout from the Conservative Party Conference, which revealed that policymakers are set to take the UK down the “hard” Brexit route. By contrast, the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
