Asia Economics Update King’s death casts shadow over Thailand The death of Thailand’s highly-revered king will plunge the country into a state of mourning, and also deep political uncertainty. There is a risk that political tensions flare up, triggering a... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Aug. 16) South Africa’s total mine production continued to fall in August, but PGM output recovered as miners took advantage of higher prices. Looking ahead, we think there is a risk of supply disruptions in... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s September commodity imports hold up rather well A renewed contraction in China’s import bill grabbed the headlines this morning, but China’s commodity import volumes were actually surprisingly strong last month. 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 16) September’s RICS survey shows to the first rise in buyer enquiries since March. But with economic growth set to moderate and house prices already high, we don’t expect house price growth to take off... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay on prolonged hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, and while the consensus expects another rate cut in the coming months, we think rising concerns about Korea’s high household debt... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What would a Trump victory mean for metals prices? We don’t pretend to know how the political race in the US will develop or who will eventually win the presidency, but in this Metals Watch we aim to shed some light on the potential impact on metals... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to slightly weaker labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the recent evidence that labour market conditions have weakened a little over the past year, and that slack is no longer diminishing at such a rapid pace. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed, not high valuations, is key near-term threat to EM equites 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will Clinton’s proposals boost homeownership? Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return OPEC production rose in September as Libya and Nigeria ramped up exports. Saudi Arabia’s output did fall, but this is likely to be a seasonal effect rather than a policy shift. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tide turning towards stimulus With central banks running out of firepower, public finances in a better state than they have been for a long time and sovereign bond yields exceptionally low, it is not surprising that some... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m drop in Mexican industrial production in August is disappointing coming on the back of three consecutive increases. Nonetheless, it largely reflected another sharp fall in mining output... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production in August suggests that the sectorprovided a positive, albeit small, boost to GDP growth in Q3. However, industry isunlikely to be able to prevent the... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What might the US election mean for energy commodities? The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
