India Economics Update What does the new estimate of the neutral rate tell us? While the RBI is probably correct in suggesting that global neutral interest rates have fallen, this does not necessarily mean that India’s own neutral rate has fallen too, as the RBI suggested when... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: MPC divided, but rates to remain on hold Chile’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 3.50%, although the MPC appears to be divided over whether to flag rate cuts or not. For now, we expect signs that the economy is recovering keep... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) September's slightly weaker-than-expected inflation figure supports our view that the SARB will hold its key policy rate unchanged at 7.00% over the coming quarters rather than hiking rates. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.) The official GDP figures remain too stable to tell us much about the performance of China’s economy. Our own measure of economic activity suggests that growth actually picked up in Q3. But with credit... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will business investment remain sluggish? Investment by Japanese firms has been disappointingly weak recently. Capacity utilisation is high and firms are in a strong financial position to step up spending, but we nonetheless expect the recent... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will money market changes affect US government bonds? Following the implementation of new US money market regulations on Friday, US interbank rates might fall back a bit. While this could prompt some renewed demand for long-term Treasuries from foreign... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Near-term risks largely on the downside The recent more positive tone in commodity markets has been helped by a number of tailwinds that may be about to fade, if not reverse. The boost to Chinese demand from policy stimulus now already... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will new money market rules affect demand for Treasuries? 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Would a Clinton win really be a boon for the stock market? The conventional wisdom is that a Clinton administration would represent a near seamless continuation of the current Obama administration, but that view could be under-estimating the potential for a... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will new money market rules affect demand for Treasuries? 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Is the sell-off in UK government bonds overdone? While the pound continues to be the main casualty of the vote to leave the EU, UK government bonds have come under pressure recently. Indeed, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risenby around... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia to ease pace of austerity in 2017-18 Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond issuance and the recent OPEC agreement have put the spotlight back on to the country’s adjustment to low oil prices. One point that is often overlooked is... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the MPC going soft on inflation? Apparent concerns in the bond market that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has gone soft on inflation look overdone. We expect the forthcoming rise in inflation to be transitory. But if it isn’t... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although headline CPI inflation increased to a two-year high of 1.5% in September, the more modest gain in core consumer prices suggests that underlying price pressures are building only very... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The better than expected 0.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales in August, which translated into an even bigger 1.2% m/m gain in volumes terms, will provide even more reassurance to the Bank of... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan well placed to cope with higher energy prices Japan’s economy has become less reliant on imported energy in recent years as electricity consumption has fallen sharply. With consumers having stepped up savings over the past two years, the country... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
