Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation dropped to its lowest rate this year in September as food prices fell at a steeper pace and the effect of administered price hikes earlier this year continued to fade. We expect... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct. & Q4) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for October and Q4 suggests that the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote is weighing on the manufacturing sector, but that the fall in the pound will help... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) According to our detailed estimates, capital flows out of China picked up last month. Global investors have regained some of their appetite for renminbi assets, but Chinese households and firms are... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a ten-month high suggests that GDP growth may have picked up at the start of Q4. Nevertheless, there is a concerning divergence in conditions between the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks should continue to weather economic headwinds Banks in Saudi Arabia have coped well so far with the fallout from lower oil prices and we think the sector is in a strong position to confront the ongoing economic headwinds over the coming years. 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fifth straight rise in the manufacturing PMI in October indicates that firms are dealing well with the headwind from a stronger exchange rate. What’s more, the survey suggests that consumer prices... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) The contraction in export values eased last month as the drag from falling prices is fading, and export volumes recorded the strongest rise since January last year. However, the renewed recent... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Higher borrowing won’t deter the Chancellor This week’s economic data broke from the recent upbeat trend, with inflation jumping up and the latest public finances figures highlighting the challenge that the Chancellor faces in the Autumn... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might derail our European property yield forecasts? The prevailing view is that European property yields have essentially reached their trough. But we disagree and have pencilled in falls of 40bps from here. Nevertheless, it is prudent to ask what... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities pause for breath Most commodity prices were little changed this week despite strong activity data from China. Indeed, the only industrial metals to record gains were tin and lead whose prices were buoyed by ongoing... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strong export performance The third-quarter GDP figures, due for release late this week, could provide a further boost to Clinton’s chances of winning. Although if our estimate that GDP growth picked up to 2.5% annualised is... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi has further to slide against US dollar Dollar strength rather than renminbi weakness has been the main driver of the latest drop in the renminbi, which has taken it to its weakest against the US dollar in over six years. In trade-weighted... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Shift away from US could damage Philippines’ economy The Philippines’ shift towards closer ties with China is unlikely to bring many economic benefits to the country. And by upsetting the US there is a risk that President Duterte undermines a much more... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
