Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing Although the Bank of Canada gave no indication in last week’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, Governor Stephen Poloz freely admitted in his press conference that an... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) The recent softness in core CPI inflation could become a major concern for the Bank of Canada. The Bank was forced to cut its projection for inflation earlier this week in its new Monetary Policy... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draft Budgets based on over-optimistic forecasts Last week, the European Commission (EC) published the draft Budgets for 2017 as submitted by eurozone governments. On the face of it at least, there is little for the EC to be concerned about. All... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) Data to mid-October show that inflation in Brazil is continuing to ease, which should provide room for another cut in interest rates at November’s COPOM meeting. 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much has the economy slowed? It’s been a long time coming, but we will finally get the official verdict this week on how much economic growth has slowed in the third quarter following the referendum outcome. Encouragingly, the... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s public finances figures set the tone for a fairly disappointing set of fiscal forecasts likely to be revealed in the Autumn Statement next month. But this won’t prevent the Chancellor from... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Interest rates to be left unchanged until 2017 The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting on 27th October. Indeed, at its last meeting in September the Bank changed the wording in its policy statement from... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Surge in current account highlights sluggish demand The strong recent increase in the current account surplus is bad news for an economy struggling with persistently weak demand, as it implies that households and firms have saved rather than spent the... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform progress in Indonesia not enough to revive growth Despite the progress Joko Widodo has made in pushing through some important economic reforms during his first two years in office, we see little prospect of a sustained rebound in economic growth in... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What is driving overseas demand for UK property? The widely held view that the drop in the pound is the primary factor propping up demand for UK property among overseas buyers is not wrong – but it is too simplistic. The fall in sterling will have... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch No need for the Riksbank to loosen policy further Inflation has undershot the Riksbank’s forecastssince it last met to set policy in September. Butwe expect inflation to rise again before long, andwith economic conditions strong there is lesspressure... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth holding up well Consumer spending growth is unlikely to maintain the strength seen since the referendum in the coming quarters. Real household incomes are likely to take a hit, with employment intention surveys... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the new-build premium really falling? The gap between the average price of new and existing homes now stands at a six year low. But that fall is mainly a reflection of limitations in the available data. There is little evidence that the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show a 2% y/y rise in global steel output in September, slightly stronger than the 1.9% y/y growth a month earlier. After a weak start to... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
