Europe Economics Update ECB signals December QE extension President Draghi did not explicitly promise imminent policy action today. But he signalled that assetpurchases would not end abruptly. And as tapering has apparently still not been discussed, we... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales rose by a respectable 3.2% m/m in September, helped by a welcome rise in the share of first-time buyers. But with inventory levels still very low, rising housing demand is more... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s star begins to fade Mexico’s faltering economy probably escaped recession in Q3 – but it’s a close call. Our GDP growth forecast for this year was already below consensus but we are nudging it down from 2.0% to 1.8%... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end The Turkish MPC didn’t rule out a resumption of its easing cycle following the surprise decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, but for our part we think that further falls in the lira and... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3) According to today’s RICS construction survey, both current and expected activity improved on the second quarter’s poor showing. But with the industrial and private commercial balances both below the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Sep.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.2% y/y in September. However, in a reversal of the trend that has prevailed for much of this year... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing set to be gradual as Bank Indonesia cuts again Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to reduce its main policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% is unlikely to mark the end of its rate cutting cycle. However, further loosening is likely to be... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Easy credit lifting the service sector China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. Figures for Q3 show stronger activity in retail and real estate... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course The recent strengthening in the dollar and rise in Treasury yields are unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. The moves seen so far have been small, and with a December rate hike... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) While retail sales remained flat in September, spending on the high street held up well over Q3 as a whole. However, it seems unlikely that this strength will last in the face of softer employment and... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Fed drives a wedge between metals prices The performance of industrial and precious metals prices has diverged in the last month. Industrial metals have benefited from more positive economic data out of China while precious metals have... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market boosted by dovish RBI Indian bonds have continued to rally this month after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a surprise rate cut and left the door open for further loosening. However, we fear that policy could be... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rate cuts to remain gradual, for now The decision by Brazil’s COPOM to cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by only 25bp (rather than 50bp), combined with a slightly less dovish accompanying statement than some had expected, reinforces... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September’s Swedish Labour Force Survey confirmed that the previous month’s poorresults were a one-off and highlights the tightness of the labour market. With firms’hiring intentions picking up in... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail Concerns about the health of Nigerian banks have risen over the past month. Indeed, as we explain in this Watch, it now looks increasingly likely that parts of the financial sector will require... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
