UK Economics Update Are retail sales providing a misleadingly-upbeat picture? As one of the most timely and frequent indicators of household spending growth, attention naturally falls on the monthly retail sales numbers to gauge the strength of activity in the consumer sector... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity producers and China drive EM recovery EM GDP is currently growing at its fastest pace in 18 months, with the recovery being driven mainly bystronger growth in commodity producers as well as an upturn in China. According to our GDP tracker... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new Government may be short-lived Even if Spain’s new minority Government gets support for its 2017 Budget, it will struggle to build the consensus needed to pass other measures. Accordingly, political uncertainty will continue to... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Fiscal goals still too ambitious Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s budget plans rely on an economic acceleration that we believe is unlikely to materialise. If growth stays weak, South Africa will over-shoot its deficit and debt... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Job gains mostly part-time positions for older workers The labour market appears to have come storming back in September, with employment increasing by almost 70,000 in a single month. Under the surface, however, labour market conditions remain weak. The... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Setbacks in EU-Canada trade deal bode ill for EU growth The latest setbacks in ratifying an EU-Canada trade deal have larger direct economic implications for Canada than for the EU. But the political deadlock bodes ill for future EU trade agreements which... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep. 16) Mortgage approvals rose for house purchase rose the first time in four months, suggesting that the recent fall in mortgage lending has bottomed out. That said, with the economic backdrop set to be... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: What to make of the latest debt revelations It seems likely that Mozambique will eventually reach a debt restructuring deal with its creditors. But the revelation of yet more hidden debt (or another currency fall) could result in a messier... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Renewed drive for energy efficiency to cap oil demand and prices The fall in oil prices over the last two years may explain why the efficiency of oil use is growing more slowly than before 2014, especially in non-OECD economies. However, government regulation and a... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Oct.) Despite a rise in October, small business confidence still points to stagnant industrial production at best, and the outlook is not any better. 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3) Ignore the larger-than-expected rise in headline CPI inflation in the third quarter, what really matters is that underlying inflation was weaker than the RBA expected. It probably wasn’t weak enough... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Strong pick-up in Q3 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growthrose in Q3 to the fastest since 2014. However, with credit growth now starting toslow and the government taking steps to... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal Notwithstanding one or two more positive signs, world trade remains in the doldrums. And the fact that the EU-Canada trade agreement may be scuppered by a regional Belgian government does not bode... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 16) Despite the decline in the Conference Board index of consumer confidence in October, it is still at a level consistent with annualised consumption growth of more than 2.5%. Furthermore, given that the... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
