UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures highlight that the housing market has started to stabilise and that consumers’ appetite for debt hasn’t taken much of a hit following the referendum. And while... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) • Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for the first time in four months in September, echoing last week’s message from the BBA data that the fall in mortgage lending has bottomed out. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) In line with the improvement in the property survey data and a more active investment market, at £476m, net lending to the property sector entirely reversed August’s losses. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Saudi devaluation fears fade, African oil currencies struggle Saudi Arabia’s successful international bond sale earlier this month has eased concerns about the sustainability of its currency peg, but exchange rates in other frontier oil exporters remain in the... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) While today’s retail sales data suggest that private consumption may at best be flat in Q3, the industrial production figures point to continued recovery. We therefore stick to our forecast of a 0.1%... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports record first positive growth in two years The dollar value of exports from Emerging Asia (excluding China) grew in August by 3.1% y/y – the first expansion in nearly two years. The recent improvement in export performance owes more to the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bleak forecasts proved unfounded This week’s economic data brought confirmation that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU has not been nearly as severe as many had initially expected and gives us reason to be... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities looking for direction It was a relatively quiet week in commodity markets but the price of oil took a tumble as investors swung round to our more sceptical view on OPEC’s ability to reach an agreement on curbing production... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update 1992 or 2008? There are some reasons why the recent fall in the pound will be less positive for the economy than that seen after 1992’s ERM exit. But there are also reasons to think that it might be more positive... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany-France divergence looks set to last Last week brought some good news about the euro-zone economy, with October’s composite PMI and EC ESI both pointing to an acceleration of growth. But both the hard data and survey indicators look much... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Canada be more transparent? The mixed messages coming from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last week, which caused a stir in financial markets and the media, makes us wonder if, like most other major central banks, the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The bigger than expected 2.9% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost within the last year. As such, this leaves the Fed firmly... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth accelerates on back of China pick-up Our GDP Tracker suggests that, having stalled in July, the EM recovery has since resumed. This is due in large part to a pick-up in growth in China. In contrast, the latest data from Brazil have... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Sep.) Stronger-than-expected Chilean activity data for September suggest that GDP growth picked up to more than 2% y/y in Q3, which would be the strongest rate since the middle of 2015. While this wouldn’t... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
