Commodities Update What would a Trump win mean for commodities? The initial uncertainty that would follow the election of Donald Trump as US President would surely undermine the prices of assets that are perceived to be riskier, including industrial commodities as... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct. Final) The latest business surveys suggest that global manufacturing growth picked up last month. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, released earlier today, climbed from 51.0 to 52.0 in October, its highest... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari The Nigerian senate’s decision to block the president’s borrowing plans may preclude an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan. The bill’s failure highlights the importance of boosting domestic non-oil... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory? A Trump victory in the US elections next Tuesday may send shockwaves through financial markets, at least temporarily. But the economic consequences for the world as a whole would be less dramatic. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped last week, driven by a flood of imports, a small uptick in production and a decrease in demand from refineries. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Disputed election result would introduce new uncertainty The presidential election race is now too close to call, raising the possibility of a near-tied election result that would be aggressively disputed by one or both of the candidates. Under those... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) A rise in mortgage rates led a drop in refinancing activity in October, and a lack of housing inventory pushed applications for home purchase to their lowest level since the start of the year. With... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would be the impact of a cut in VAT? While the fiscal cost of cutting Value Added Tax (VAT) would be quite high, it could provide theeconomy with valuable support by limiting the rise in inflation and associated real income squeeze. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government likely to miss privatisation target With more than half of the fiscal year over, the government’s aim of raising nearly INR600bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies looks unrealistic. Faced with a number of state... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) September’s construction PMI rose marginally; a pleasant surprise given the consensus among forecasters was for a fall. The rise was driven by the commercial sub-index, although the sector’s PMI is... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Fourth quarter 2016 Consumer spending growth is unlikely to maintain its recent strength in the year ahead. But supportive credit conditions should prevent spending from slowing too sharply, with past monetary loosening... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) House prices held flat in October, while the annual rate of growth decelerated to 4.6%. Other data suggest that buyers are now starting to return to the market following the Brexit shock. But with... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) While consumer confidence weakened slightly last month, the survey still points to a rebound in consumer spending. Meanwhile, inflation expectations show further signs of stabilising. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) While employment growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter, wage growth remained worryingly weak. This will do little to allay the RBNZ’s concerns about the inflation outlook and as a... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal fiscal update doesn't alter dismal growth outlook Finance Minister Bill Morneau focused entirely on longer-term infrastructure spending in today’s fiscal update, offering no new short-term stimulus measures to bolster the struggling economy. If, as... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
