Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone? According to the Sentix investor survey, Italy is now the most likely country to leave the euro-zone in the next 12 months. While we think that Italy remaining in the currency union is still the more... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower credit growth will keep a lid on inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have risen slightly last month but it should remain well within policymakers’ comfort zone. Looking ahead, while inflation may edge up in the short term, price... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Chinese investment lift growth in Pakistan? The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is aimed at addressing Pakistan’s perennial problems with power supply, and has been hailed by some, including the prime minister, as a game changer for the... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST begins to take shape Confirmation that a consensus has been reached on the various rates of the new Good and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its implementation. A multi-tiered GST is far from... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is consumer spending about to take off? Consumer spending has been broadly flat since 2014’s sales tax hike as households have used the windfall from falling energy and import prices to replenish savings. However, we believe that this is... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Support from looser fiscal policy set to wane China’s overall fiscal stance has become increasingly loose in recent quarters on the back of a growing budget deficit and a renewed acceleration in off-budget borrowing by local government financing... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Markets need not worry about Trump too much Should Donald Trump pull off a surprise victory in Tuesday’s US Presidential election, equities, bond yields, commodity prices and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would probably all fall. But... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA’s tone is becoming more upbeat While the forecasts published in the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy have hardly changed since the August edition, the tone is much more balanced and could probably even be described as... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep.) The outright fall in real retail sales in the third quarter is consistent with a further slowdown in real consumption growth. That said, the better-than-expected rise in nominal sales in September... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The modest pick-up in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month high of 51.9 in October, from 51.5, echoes the apparent improvement in global manufacturing conditions, in particular the latest rise... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity gradually recovering The latest data show a housing market that is on the way to recovering from a brief post-referendum slowdown. Yet the tightness in active supply conditions looks set to persist, house prices are still... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report presents sanguine economic outlook The unanimous decision by the MPC to leave interest rates and its asset purchases on hold in November did not come as a surprise given the continued run of upbeat news on the health of the economy... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy sustains its momentum but price pressures rise The latest business surveys suggest that the economy maintained its strength at the start of Q4. Gains in both the Markit/CIPS services and construction PMIs in October left the economy-wide composite... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) Russian inflation once again surprised on the downside, falling to 6.1% y/y in October. This is unlikely to cause the central bank to change its mind, and interest rates will almost definitely be kept... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
