Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes support expectations of QE extension Today’s minutes showed broad support for an extension of the Riksbank’s government bond purchase programme. Combined with the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s victory in the US, an extension of... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation in October is likely to be followed up by further declines over the coming months. Accordingly, barring a sustained drop in the real – the currency is down by 2.5... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump victory to bring lasting uncertainty and volatility Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech, which suggests that he can be a more statesmanlike President rather than the demagogue of the election campaign, has helped to reverse some of the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump win to boost gold prices further The surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election is likely to lead to greater safe-haven demand over the next few months, with gold a clear winner. While heightened risk aversion... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brexit minus, minus, minus? The initial reaction in the markets to Donald Trump’s victory has not been as large as we expected and many of the moves have now been largely unwound. Nonetheless, the rebounds that we have seen are... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Trump win could widen policy divergence next year We suspect that the Nordic and Swiss economies will see limited effects from Mr Trump’s victory. Butit makes monetary policy divergence between Switzerland and Sweden next year slightly more likely. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Trump’s victory mean for policymakers in Asia? The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today and is likely to be in little hurry to adjust monetary policy over the coming year. Elsewhere in the region, the increase in... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global economic consequences of Trump’s victory Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has, so far, had less impact on financial markets than most anticipated. We suspect that it has also made little difference to the immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) The latest trade figures highlighted that a better performance from the external sector was one of the factors behind the strength of GDP growth in Q3. And the drop in the pound should have some... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trump win could heighten euro-zone political risks The limited immediate reaction in European financial markets to Donald Trump’s victory appears to support our view that the outcome will have few direct economic implications. If anything, though, the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s hopes for the TPP dead and buried The yen may strengthen a little further as increased uncertainty adds to safe haven demand, and Japanese exporters may face a less welcoming environment for trade. But, for Japan, the key immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PM Modi steps up anti-corruption drive The announcement late yesterday that India’s two largest denominations of banknotes have ceased to be legal tender with immediate effect is likely to weigh on economic activity in the near term, with... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Trump victory not a game-changer for the UK While Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election adds another element of uncertainty to the UK’s economic outlook, there are reasons why the consequences for the UK may be smaller and less... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Market fallout from President Trump may not last long The now-probable election of Donald Trump as US President will continue to send shockwaves through the financial markets for a while yet. But we suspect it won’t be long before the bulk of these moves... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) Allowing for seasonal factors, the Economy Watchers Survey climbed to a ten-month high in October. However, the index remains consistent with sluggish activity in the manufacturing sector. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
