Latin America Economics Update What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA? The wholesale renegotiation of NAFTA that Donald Trump talked about on the campaign trail would require approval by Congress and seems unlikely to happen. But President Trump will have broad powers to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Industrial production data for September suggest that, in contrast to the upbeat message from the strong GDP data, Indian industry continues to struggle. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trump rally may be a triumph of hope over reality Commodity markets seem to believe US President-elect Trump will quickly deliver the one thing that he probably can’t – a surge in infrastructure spending – and are ignoring all the bad stuff that... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could President Trump mean for energy commodities? Commodity markets shrugged off the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election with the initial falls in oil prices already being reversed, helped by (probably misplaced)... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising inflation to trigger rate hikes next year Despite the drop in the sol in recent days and the rising inflation rate, Peru’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.25% once again. Nonetheless, we expect hikes to resume next year and the... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The drop in new lending last month was seasonal and does not reflect a shift in broad credit growth, which was stable in October. This stability may not last, however, and we expect credit growth to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong’s economy is currently growing close to trend, despite continued subdued growth in exports. The overheated property market remains the major concern, with the recent rebound in prices after... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Housing rent to remain a drag on inflation Falling rents have been a persistent drag on inflation in Japan. While condominium prices have surged since the launch of QQE, there is virtually no link between house prices and rents. Instead, rents... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Troubles in Turkey’s tourism sector caused the current account deficit to widen even further in September, to around 4.7% of GDP. The wide external shortfall means that the lira is likely to remain... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in the third quarter of 2016, and while the worst for the economy is now over, a sharp rebound is unlikely. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the RBNZ intervene to weaken the NZ dollar? While Trump’s election win is still causing some uncertainty in financial markets, attention in New Zealand has swiftly moved to the kiwi dollar following comments by Governor Wheeler that the RBNZ... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates to stay unchanged through 2017 The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today and, while subdued growth and low inflation mean the BoK will keep monetary policy loose for the foreseeable future, a high level... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Sep.) South Africa’s total mine production rebounded in September, led by a sharp increase in PGM output on the back of higher prices. With inventories still abundant and the risk of labour disruptions... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data point to (another) sharp slowdown South African manufacturing and mining output figures for September support our view that the strong economic growth recorded in Q2 was not sustained into the third quarter. 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update A note of caution on the rally in copper prices Yesterday, the US dollar price of copper shrugged off the uncertainty created by the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US Presidential election and rose by another 3%. But while the... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep interest rates unchanged for some time yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) surprised nobody with its decision to leave its main policy rate on hold earlier today at 3.0%. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low and growth... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
