Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Fall in yields regains momentum in Q3 The pace at which all-property euro-zone yields are falling picked up in Q3. The 11bp decline was larger than the 6bp fall in Q2 and broad-based across both sectors and markets. As a result, capital... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We expect the sell-off in the US Treasury market to continue 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in November suggests that last-minute worries about the presidential election had little bearing on sentiment. With the impact of... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win could still be bad for Canada The rebound in financial markets following Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech is a positive sign for Canada’s economy. But his personal volatility and still potentially harsh views on trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Oct.) Investment activity fell back by about a third compared to September. With overseas investors still net buyers of UK property, and the effects of the referendum on capital values now fading, we think... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Nigeria and Libya push OPEC’s output higher Another rise in OPEC’s oil output in October underlines how difficult it will be for the group to agree on meaningful cuts at the end of the month, especially as US oil production is also rising. In... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed? As it stands now, our working assumption is that Trump and Congress will agree on a fiscal stimulus early next year, nearly all of it tax cuts, worth somewhere between $3trn and $5trn over the next... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Would a US fiscal stimulus help Hammond be bold? We have argued that there are good reasons to think that the economic ramifications for the UK of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election are unlikely to be very large. However, at the margin, his... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will Trump’s stimulus boost the world economy? Since Tuesday’s election, financial markets have been buoyed by hopes that Donald Trump will unleash a huge fiscal stimulus. We think a significantly higher US budget deficit is now likely, which may... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world declined a little last month, and were barely a third of the size seen earlier in the year. The sell-off in EM financial markets... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New – even more bearish – forecasts for Treasuries We are revising our forecasts for US Treasuries in response to the possibility of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration. We are, however, retaining our forecasts for the S&P 500. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Four reasons a Trump presidency is still bullish for gold prices Markets appear to believe that a Trump victory will lead to major infrastructure spending and much more aggressive Fed tightening. As a result, gold prices have fallen. While some fiscal stimulus is... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Taking stock of the reaction to Trump Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
