UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Housing demand grew for a second consecutive month in October, as buyers gradually returned to the market. But high house prices and a weaker economy will prevent this from being translated into house... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Oct.) In October, the Norges Bank’s favoured measure of inflation was unchanged at a joint 14-month low. We think that it will fall sharply next year, prompting the Bank to cut its key policy rate from 0.5%... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) Egyptian inflation dipped for a second consecutive month in October. But the 45% fall in the pound against the US dollar over the past week, as well as additional fuel subsidy cuts, means inflation is... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Sep.) Despite a renewed fall in September, machinery orders suggest that non-residential investment rebounded last quarter. However, we think this will prove short-lived. 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ thinks it has done enough The Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that business carries on as usual with Trump as US President as today it met its previous pledge to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75%. What’s more... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump, Russia and the future of sanctions Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has raised hopes in some quarters that economic sanctions on Russia will be lifted. As things stand, this is far from certain. But even if... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where next for the Egyptian pound? The 45% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar over the past week has probably taken it beyond its “fair value”, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see a small rebound in the coming days and... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland set to cut rates We think that the sharp appreciation of the króna over recent months will prompt the Central Bank of Iceland to cut its inflation forecasts next week. As a result, although the Bank has previously... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Trump victory creates more business uncertainty The reaction in financial markets to Donald Trump’s surprising US election victory has been limited so far, thanks in large part to the surprisingly conciliatory tone of his acceptance speech this... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A dramatic increase in US oil production last week helped boost stocks. However, the return of refineries from maintenance absorbed some of the extra supply. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to stay loose Polish National Bank governor, Adam Glapinski, used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to indicate that interest rates are most likely to remain unchanged over the course of next year. But... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Why were markets so quick to shrug off Trump’s victory? Capital 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market? Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
