Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s Swiss CPI data did little to ease fears that the economy may be experiencing a sustained bout of damaging deflation. This supports our view that additional monetary policy support will be... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) Data from Halifax point to house prices stagnating in the third quarter. That echoes the broad picture outlined by other indices that, while house price growth slowed in the wake of the referendum... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) Indonesia’s growth slowed to 5.0% y/y in Q3 from 5.2% in the previous quarter. While we don’t expect growth to weaken any further, with fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to provide much more support... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) India’s manufacturing PMI rose in October to its highest reading in almost two years, with sentiment being boosted by progress on the reform front and the RBI’s surprise rate cut last month... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surge in part-time employment in Australia may soon slow While the structural shift towards part-time employment has further to run, an easing in economic growth in industries with a higher than average share of part-time employees suggests that the speed... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Signs of “reflation” in the US, but not elsewhere The jump in US average earnings growth, reported earlier today, is the latest indication that inflation there is on the rise. But aside from stronger oil prices, there is little sign of a broader pick... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly US election taking centre-stage Energy and agricultural prices took a tumble this week, but for the most part industrial and precious metals performed well. Although the dollar fell, the depreciation was driven by uncertainty over... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Infrastructure bank will only create more bureaucracy The Liberal government’s plan to create a national infrastructure bank is a recipe for greater bureaucracy rather than a remedy for improving longer-term economic prospects. Existing public agencies... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property yields still have room for maneouvre Bond and equity dividend yields fell in Q3 meaning that, although property yields ticked down again, relative property valuations tended to improve over the quarter. 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: High-court ruling may delay, not cancel, Brexit Thursday’s High Court ruling on Article 50 is unlikely to prevent Brexit from happening, but it raises the chance that the start of the process gets delayed. Moreover, just as markets were looking... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much inflation will the MPC tolerate? We think that the upward revision to the MPC’s inflation forecast was about the right magnitude. But for the Committee to respond to this – or a greater – overshoot of the target, domestic costs... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty will persist well past election day This week’s presidential election is now too close to call. Even in the aftermath of the FBI Director’s letter to Congress a week last Friday, Hillary Clinton still appears to hold a slim lead in the... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil slips but coal continues to burn brightly Investors’ initial enthusiasm and subsequent scepticism about OPEC’s agreement in principle to cut production sent oil prices on a rollercoaster last month. Elsewhere, positive economic data from... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The unexpected 43,900 increase in employment in October was driven entirely by gains in part-time work, which is more evidence that the economy is struggling to generate quality high-paying jobs. Even... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The solid gain in employment and the acceleration in hourly wage growth in October will reinforce expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in December (assuming that the election doesn’t... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
