US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Although the modest monthly gain in core prices pushed the annual core inflation rate down to 2.1% in October, from 2.2%, the details still suggest that underlying price pressures are gradually... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The 25.5% m/m rise in housing starts in October was the largest since 1982, and starts were up in all regions and across both the single and multifamily sectors. While some of that gain will be... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Trump victory proves divisive Industrial metals prices were already rising ahead of Donald Trump’s election to the US Presidency, but his victory appeared to provide new grounds for optimism as markets focussed on his plans for... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM exports after the Golden Era Last month, we published a Focus outlining why we think the golden era for EM growth has passed and why the emerging world is set for structurally weaker growth. In this Focus, we explain why the same... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016 Preview Despite Chancellor Hammond’s rare opportunity to make a substantial changes to the stance of UK fiscal policy in the Autumn Statement on 23rd November, lingering worries about the outlook for the... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates, easing cycle nearing an end Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold at 4.75% and made clear that its focus is currently on maintaining a stable exchange rate rather than supporting the economy. With rate hikes in... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s retail sales figures provided further evidence that shoppers remain undeterred by the Brexit vote. Nonetheless, this rate of spending growth looks unsustainable, and there are a number of... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan moves one step closer to helicopter money With its first fixed-rate operation today in support of the new target for 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields, the Bank of Japan has moved closer to full-fledged helicopter money. There are... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) GDP data showed that the Philippines economy remains in good health, with growth picking up again in Q3. Looking ahead, the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but recent political... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) While employment increased in October for the first time since July, revisions to September’s figures meant that the annual rate of employment growth fell to a two-year low of 0.9% y/y, which will do... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A recovery in net imports of crude oil helped to fill stocks last week, whilst higher output from refineries boosted inventories of petroleum products. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus World trade in the Trump era The election of Donald Trump is the clearest expression so far of the growing anti-globalisation sentiment across advanced economies. Initially at least, we think that his bark will prove to be worse... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trumpflation, the dollar and EM balance sheets The jump in the dollar caused by the so-called “Trumpflation” trade is unlikely to cause widespread or systemic problems in the emerging world, but several EMs do look vulnerable. The most exposed are... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will struggle to keep franc’s rise at bay The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) pledge to intervene in foreign exchange markets appears to havealleviated upward pressure on the franc in the wake of the US election. But experience has shown... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The stagnation of industrial production in October, which was weaker than the consensus forecast but in line with our own estimate, was entirely due to a weather-related slump in utilities output... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
