Latin America Economics Update Chile: Interest rates to stay on hold, despite weak Q3 GDP Chile’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.50% and, while GDP data released this morning showed that economic growth remained sluggish in Q3 at 1.6% y/y, we still think it would take a... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stress tests to put pressure on buy-to-let LTVs The introduction of the buy-to-let stress test should have little near-term impact. But in the longer term, the effect of the test on mortgage volumes will be amplified by the removal of mortgage... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future With the yen weakening dramatically since the US election and incoming data showing GDP growth strong last quarter, there is now little pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease further. Less positively... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform? Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low Inflation is set to continue rising across Emerging Asia as the effects of past falls in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. However, we doubt the increase will be large enough to worry most... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely The 50bp increase in Mexican interest rates (to 5.25%) at today’s meeting was aimed at supporting the peso in the aftermath of the US election and it’s clear that further hikes are on the cards. We... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Assessing the early impact of demonetisation Despite many anecdotal reports of turmoil in the wake of last week’s surprise demonetisation, and undoubted hardship for many, the early evidence suggests that the economic impact of the move has been... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA Financial markets look to have jumped the gun by concluding that the chance of a further interest rate cut in Australia has all but vanished. We think that the weak outlook for wage growth may yet... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems? After narrowly avoiding EU fines for its excessive fiscal deficit, the Portuguese Government has a lot of work to do to get its finances in order. But strong political resistance to austerity and... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank stands pat, but further rate hikes likely Today’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 14.75% is probably a pause in the tightening cycle. We think the fall in the pound since it was floated will push... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers continue to shrug off Brexit worries After narrowly avoiding EU fines for its excessive fiscal deficit, the Portuguese Government has a lot of work to do to get its finances in order. But strong political resistance to austerity and... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming Chair Janet Yellen’s remarkably bland prepared congressional testimony today did nothing to change our view that the Fed will hike interest rates at the upcoming mid-December FOMC meeting. Despite... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US corporate bonds? We think that the resilience of US corporate bonds since Donald Trump won the race to the White House is a sign of things to come, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy significantly. 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch OPEC likely to do just enough OPEC’s next official meeting on 30th November is being viewed by the markets as a make-or-break opportunity. A strong, credible deal to cap supply could put a floor under prices and help to rebalance... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Yellen indicates Fed could raise rates “relatively soon” 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
