Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in South Africa picked up from 6.1% y/y in September to 6.4% y/y in October, but we still expect that the SARB will keep its key policy rate on hold this week. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s policy rate to stay on hold throughout 2017 Today’s decision by Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) to keep interest rates on hold at 3.0% suggests that it is more worried about supporting the weak currency than boosting the sluggish economy. Looking... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts While many analysts are scrambling to revise down their economic forecasts for Mexico and the rest of Latin America in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, for now we see little reason to make... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Has the storm passed? Looser monetary policy, a healthy run of economic data, as well as some signs that the impact of the referendum on capital values is fading, mean that we have made some minor upgrades to our forecasts... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales rose for the second month in a row in October, although the gain of 2% m/m was modest. A lack of inventory is preventing an otherwise favourable economic backdrop from giving sales... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Trump’s fiscal stimulus won’t be a game-changer for US equities 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement 2016 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump fiscal stimulus will boost GDP growth The prospect of a major fiscal stimulus means that we are formally raising our forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia unlikely to take strong action to boost oil prices The oil cartel, OPEC, is likely to reach some sort of face-saving deal to cut oil output at its meeting next week, but we think claims that Saudi Arabia has abandoned its strategy of protecting its... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in September is encouraging but, given the already reported 1.5% m/m slump in wholesales sales volumes that month, the economy still ended the third quarter... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates in face of “stagflation” Today’s MPC statement makes it very clear that the CBN is unwilling to hike interest rates in the face of inflation that is more than double the official target. The next move will probably be down. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Gilt yields won’t rise much further The recent rise in gilt yields has fully reversed the falls seen after the EU referendum. Although they have followed Treasury yields up following Trump’s election victory, this is not the whole story... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Nov.) November’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided another indication that economic growth has been better-balanced in Q4. However, it highlighted the impact that the drop in the pound is beginning to... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Riksbank will have to tighten policy next year Swedish inflation is set to rise sharply over the next year. As such, the Riksbank’s intention to loosen monetary policy further seems like a mistake and any additional interest rate cuts will have to... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
