Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thailand’s growth slowed in Q3 and looks set to soften further over the coming quarters, due to high levels of household debt, lacklustre global growth and continued political uncertainty. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Oct.) Even though the drag from the stronger yen has started to fade, the annual growth rate of both export and import values fell deeper into the red last month. Nonetheless, net exports may still provide... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much support will Mr Hammond provide? The rumour mill has been a little quieter than usual. But the Chancellor is surely piecing together a package of giveaways for his Autumn Statement – perhaps something in the region of about £7bn in... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Some more mixed news on the economy This week brought some more mixed news on the state of the economy after the referendum, but markets have revised up their expectations for interest rates, and gilt yields have risen, regardless. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities take stock After last week’s wild swings, the prices of most commodities stabilised this week. That said, positive comments from OPEC and Russian officials on the prospects for output cuts gave oil prices a... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China trade pact will not compensate for failure of TPP The demise of the TPP is a blow to economic prospects in Emerging Asia. The benefits of a China-led regional trade deal are likely to be much smaller. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut Although the Canadian dollar has weakened further lately, financial conditions overall appear to be tightening now because of rising market interest rates and new stricter mortgage rules. Given the... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The continued softness in core consumer prices in October suggests that the downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate projection is growing, which is consistent with our view that an... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the bond sell-off push property yields higher? The recent surge in gilt yields has reversed much of the widening in the property-to-gilt spread seen after the referendum. Yet, at 390bp, the gap between the all-property yield and gilts is still... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data showed that the Russian economy’s slow recovery continued at the start of Q4, driven by improvements in industry. But the fresh downturn in retail spending confirmed that... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the risks around the French election Recent events seem to have further boosted the chances of the National Front’s Marine Le Pen in next spring’s presidential election. Of course, she has been quick to claim that Donald Trump’s victory... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slower Spanish retail rental growth likely to prove temporary Retail rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid has slowed recently, despite the continued strength of retail sales. With weaker domestic demand on the horizon, rental growth is likely to ease further... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Latest data highlight varying inflation outlooks October’s consumer prices data highlight the contrasting inflation outlooks in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway. In Sweden, consumer price inflation picked up to its strongest rate in four-and-a-half... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysian ringgit weakness to deter interest rate cuts The Malaysian central bank confirmed today that it has been intervening in foreign exchange markets to support the ringgit, which is now close to its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
