Assessing the risks around the French election

Recent events seem to have further boosted the chances of the National Front’s Marine Le Pen in next spring’s presidential election. Of course, she has been quick to claim that Donald Trump’s victory in the US underlines the credibility of her bid to govern France. And Emmanuel Macron’s widely anticipated announcement that he will run for president as an independent, reform-minded candidate“of neither the left nor the right” could fragment the centrist vote and put Le Pen in a stronger position. What’s more, several other factors could drive up her support in the run-up to the election.