Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing sales in September was overshadowed by the disappointing drop in sales volumes, hinting that the economy ended the third quarter on a weak... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold down, but not out? Right now the decision to nudge up our forecasts for the gold price in the wake of Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US presidential election may not look like a smart one. Indeed, the price of the... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy flatlined in Q3 September’s retail sales figure was a bit stronger than expected, but activity data for Q3 as a whole suggest that South Africa’s economy may have contracted last quarter. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Sep.) The number of people in work dropped back slightly in September, reflecting a relatively broad-based slowing in the labour market across different job types. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Strong króna may yet prompt a rate cut in Iceland The Central Bank of Iceland’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged rests on overly cautious assumptions for the króna and on fears about fiscal policy and capital controls that will probably not... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) Today’s figures confirmed the indications from the surveys that the leave vote is starting to sap the jobs recovery of its previous strength. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector supports stabilisation of Saudi economy The latest figures from our Saudi GDP Tracker suggest that the Kingdom’s economy stabilised in Q3, supported by stronger growth in the oil sector. Some more timely indicators have raised fresh... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Amid falling profitability and sluggish loan demand at home, banks continue to expand overseas lending. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors turn positive on metals The prices of industrial metals have risen strongly in the last month on optimism about demand and a surge in investor buying. In contrast, sentiment has turned negative in the oil market as investors... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Sep.) Peruvian economic activity data showed that, while the economy weakened between August and September, GDP growth over Q3 as a whole probably strengthened to around 4.5% y/y from 3.6% y/y in Q2. 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Headline supply overstates the risk to London office rents The size of London’s active pipeline has risen slightly since May. More supply poses a risk to rental values. However, the likelihood of a rental correction depends on both the net increase in supply... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the bond “bloodbath” mean for the economy? The slump in global bond prices after the US elections and the accompanying rise in long-term interest rates will cause some pain both to existing bondholders and future borrowers. Nonetheless... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The national house price growth rate edged up to 11.8% in October, from 11.7%, driven entirely by Toronto’s hot housing market. While we expect that trend to continue in the very near term, stricter... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The solid 0.8% m/m increase in retail sales in October brings to an abrupt end the run of weaker underlying sales gains over the past few months and, further, suggests that households were not unduly... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
